Obadiah Dragon (Nathan Delany) in March when he scored at Manawatu. PHOTO: Jack McKenzie.
Why $34 rank outsider Obadiah Dragon takes Ray’s fancy at Auckland on Friday night
By Barry Lichter • 23 May 2024
Call him crazy, but Lincoln Farms trainer Ray Green is tipping rank outsider Obadiah Dragon as the stable’s best chance at Auckland on Friday night.
With an average-looking form line and at odds of $34 and $5.50, twice as much as the second roughest in the race, Obadiah Dragon would seem at first glance an unlikely prospect.
But Green says the Fear The Dragon gelding is racing far better than it would appear and he rates him and each-way chance, even from a wide draw.
“He’s an improving horse who is right in the zone. He’s better than most people think and I’m sure he’ll go a good race.”
Green says Obadiah Dragon’s last two starts, at Auckland and Cambridge, don’t reflect his recent improvement as he’s been held up at crucial times.
At Cambridge on May 9 the race was all but over by the time driver Andre Poutama was able to work into the clear wide out, finishing fastest to get within 1.1 lengths of stablemate Leo Lincoln.
And last week at Alexandra Park, from seven on the gate, he ended up five deep, and was again held up when trying to improve in the run home, eventually forced over a marker peg when in tight quarters close to the post.
Obadiah Dragon, a dual Manawatu winner, gave a hint at what was to come when, three starts back at Cambridge, he looped the field to lead mid-race, gobbled up late in the last 100 metres in Skipper’s slick 2:41.3 win.
All four of Lincoln Farms’ remaining runners will be at good odds on Friday night, Leo Lincoln at $15 and $2.70, the most favoured from the pole in the fifth race.
“He went another good race last week, slightly inconvenienced at a bad time. He wasn’t very quick out of the gate but did enough to hold up three fence.
“It’s a smaller field this time so it might be run a bit differently but he’ll need the right trip.”
My Copy ($26, $3.80), who draws alongside Leo, is always a chance, says Green.
“He went another good, honest race last week, but had to come four wide on the home turn. He’s better suited in a smaller field on Friday but will need all the breaks.”
It took all of Zachary Butcher’s skills to get Lincoln Cove home at Cambridge. PHOTO: Angelique Bridson.Green says he’s given up trying to predict what Lincoln Cove ($16, $3.60) will do.
Sixth favourite in the third race, he starts from the inside of the second row, in a race seemingly dominated by the very promising Hawkeye Pierce.
“You wouldn’t know what our horse is going to do. It depends whether he wants to win or not. He trained really well last week. This week he’s been going like shit.”
Lincoln Cove, who finally did everything right winning his last start at Cambridge on April 25, tended to get in right-handed, so could be an even more dicey proposition at Auckland.
Frisco Bay ($51, $8), from two on the second row, will need a lot of luck.
“It’s impossible to predict what might happen from that draw but you can put a line through his last run, they went nothing and only sprinted up the straight.”
More news in Harness
‘The Kid’ flying but Argyle up against it to add good points in novel drivers’ challenge
Street’s emotion-charged night in the winners’ room - sad loss before a record four wins
It’s green jackets all the way and Ray fancies improving surprise packet Prince Lincoln
The Lincoln Wave secret is well and truly out now, but who was that mystery underbidder?
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
