Obadiah Dragon (Nathan Delany) in March when he scored at Manawatu. PHOTO: Jack McKenzie.
Why $34 rank outsider Obadiah Dragon takes Ray’s fancy at Auckland on Friday night
By Barry Lichter • 23 May 2024
Call him crazy, but Lincoln Farms trainer Ray Green is tipping rank outsider Obadiah Dragon as the stable’s best chance at Auckland on Friday night.
With an average-looking form line and at odds of $34 and $5.50, twice as much as the second roughest in the race, Obadiah Dragon would seem at first glance an unlikely prospect.
But Green says the Fear The Dragon gelding is racing far better than it would appear and he rates him and each-way chance, even from a wide draw.
“He’s an improving horse who is right in the zone. He’s better than most people think and I’m sure he’ll go a good race.”
Green says Obadiah Dragon’s last two starts, at Auckland and Cambridge, don’t reflect his recent improvement as he’s been held up at crucial times.
At Cambridge on May 9 the race was all but over by the time driver Andre Poutama was able to work into the clear wide out, finishing fastest to get within 1.1 lengths of stablemate Leo Lincoln.
And last week at Alexandra Park, from seven on the gate, he ended up five deep, and was again held up when trying to improve in the run home, eventually forced over a marker peg when in tight quarters close to the post.
Obadiah Dragon, a dual Manawatu winner, gave a hint at what was to come when, three starts back at Cambridge, he looped the field to lead mid-race, gobbled up late in the last 100 metres in Skipper’s slick 2:41.3 win.
All four of Lincoln Farms’ remaining runners will be at good odds on Friday night, Leo Lincoln at $15 and $2.70, the most favoured from the pole in the fifth race.
“He went another good race last week, slightly inconvenienced at a bad time. He wasn’t very quick out of the gate but did enough to hold up three fence.
“It’s a smaller field this time so it might be run a bit differently but he’ll need the right trip.”
My Copy ($26, $3.80), who draws alongside Leo, is always a chance, says Green.
“He went another good, honest race last week, but had to come four wide on the home turn. He’s better suited in a smaller field on Friday but will need all the breaks.”
It took all of Zachary Butcher’s skills to get Lincoln Cove home at Cambridge. PHOTO: Angelique Bridson.Green says he’s given up trying to predict what Lincoln Cove ($16, $3.60) will do.
Sixth favourite in the third race, he starts from the inside of the second row, in a race seemingly dominated by the very promising Hawkeye Pierce.
“You wouldn’t know what our horse is going to do. It depends whether he wants to win or not. He trained really well last week. This week he’s been going like shit.”
Lincoln Cove, who finally did everything right winning his last start at Cambridge on April 25, tended to get in right-handed, so could be an even more dicey proposition at Auckland.
Frisco Bay ($51, $8), from two on the second row, will need a lot of luck.
“It’s impossible to predict what might happen from that draw but you can put a line through his last run, they went nothing and only sprinted up the straight.”
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Cambridge
Race 1: Spirited Belle
4.46pm
Delany: “I saw she’d been punted but somebody must know something we don’t as I’ve been working her myself and, while she feels all right and hasn’t put the boot in like at Auckland, I think she’ll need the run. She hasn’t got any high speed but feels like she will stay. She has improved a bit but I’d be surprised if she won.”
Race 1: Lincoln Maree
4.46pm
“It’s always hard from these draws but she’s a tough mare who will make her own luck at some stage. She’s going well enough - her drivers have all been happy - and she’s a little warrior who tries like hell.”
Race 2: Major Copy
5.12pm
“He’s only two and very inexperienced but he feels like a good colt and there’s a lot of improvement in him. He certainly caught a lot of people’s attention last time. I don’t know how good he is yet but he’ll be right there.”
Race 2: Prince Lincoln
5.12pm
“If he can lead without having to do too much work I can’t see anything beating him. I thought he went great last start. He pressed the winner hard ’til the corner then just flattened out in the run home, but he had every reason to do that after all the work he’d done.”
Race 4: Spirit Of God
6.12pm
“She’s been undone by bad draws. If she led easily from three she’d be hard to beat as she’s a good front-runner.”
Race 4: Spirited Peggy
6.12pm
“We’ve had her for only two weeks but she’s seven now and has had her chance to win one. She has a bit of speed but I think she gets pulling so we’ve got the Hidez (compression) hood on her and plugged her ears up.”
Race 6: Copy N Paste
7.10pm
“We won’t see the best of him for another six months. He’s been a slow developing horse but is improving all the time and getting stronger.”
Race 6: Jessie Lincoln
7.10pm
“If I was having a bet on one of them in the race it would be her. She deserves to win one. Her last two have been really good - she just ran into one who was a bit slicker last time in Major Copy.”
Race 6: Lincoln Dealer
7.10pm
“He’s a bit one-dimensional - you’ve got to feed him track and let him run - so the second row draw is a big handicap. To his credit I was surprised he finished so close last time after all the work he did. When he gets a decent draw and crosses them they’ll know they’re at the races. He’s got a big motor and tries hard.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.08pm
“She clawed her way to the front last time but had nothing left at the finish. That won’t happen this time and she should lead easily from one.”
Race 8: Angelic Copy
8.08pm
“She’s had terrible draws but has been going good races. The others last time were just better than her but this is a big drop in class. With the right trip she could get some of it at huge odds.”
Race 9: Sugar Ray Lincoln
8.35pm
“He’s not quick away from a stand but he won’t muff it completely. He steps from the front line and Peter Ferguson was quite happy with his last run.”
Race 9: Lincoln Wave
8.35pm
“He bombed the stand the first time but to be fair all those horses were rushing up at him from the back and that panicked him a bit. He’s on 10 metres this time so that won’t happen.”
