We crunch the numbers: Few good enough to win a Jewels unless they’re handy at the bell

Statistics show if you want to win a Harness Jewels at Cambridge you need to be handy at the bell - or be driving something right out of the box.

In the 54 races run at Cambridge over six Jewels meetings, 42 winners (77.7%) have been either leading, parked, trailing or in the one-one with a lap to run.

On a track renowned for favouring the leader and trailer, 24 (44.4%) of the Cambridge Jewels races have been won from the front and six (11.1%) from the trail.

Seven horses (12.9%) have scored after being parked at the bell and five (9.25%) have come from the one out-one back possie.

Another five horses have prevailed after either being three fence or handy three wide a round from home but only seven horses have been good enough to come from well back.

Three of the biggest efforts were recorded at Cambridge in 2014 when Sky Major (13), Sheemon (13) and Franco Nelson (12) were among five horses to win from second row draws.

Sky Major looked up against it in the Three-Year-Old Emerald when he was four back on the outer at the bell and still had a lot of ground to make up when only fifth and forced four wide turning for home. But he came with a powerhouse finish for Zachary Butcher to reel in the leaders and win, going away, from Tiger Tara by three-quarters of a length in the fastest time of the day, 1:52. Sky Major is the only horse to have won a Jewels at two, three and four.

Sheemon’s run in the Four-Year-Old Ruby was also huge, three wide and three back at the bell and also pushed four wide round the home bend.

Franco Nelson ended the day on a spectacular note in the Four-Year-Old Emerald when he came from fourth last at the bell, sweeping up three wide at the 800, improving four wide down the back straight and getting up to nail Major Star a nose.

Most winners from five

The favouring of on-pace winners is reflected by the fact 32 of the 54 winners (59.2%) have drawn between gates one to five.

And, perhaps surprisingly, gate five has been the most successful with 10 winners.

Gates one, two and four have each had six winners.

No horses have won from barriers six or seven.

Gate nine, the inside of the second row that Krug faces in the Three-Year-Old Emerald on Sunday, has seen only three winners.

The connections of horses drawn two on the second row can be comforted by the fact gate 10 has produced five winners.

Eighteen horses (33.3%) have won after starting from the second row, a revealing stat given 38.4% of draws are on the second line, debunking the myth that the high numbers are necessarily a death sentence.

Where the winners have come from

Harness Jewels sponsor IRT’s Richard Cole with the new mobile at Addington Raceway. Good gate draws are a real boon at the Jewels.Winning barrier draws at Cambridge in the six runnings of the Jewels:

1. Six times
2. Six
3. Four
4. Six
5. Ten - Most winners
6. -
7. -
8. Four
9. Three
10. Five
11. Three
12. Three
13. Four

Winning draws year by year

2018: 8, 3, 5, 12, 1, 5, 10, 1, 2

2016: 9, 5, 4, 8, 2, 12, 5, 1, 5

2014: 5, 4, 13, 4, 11, 13, 13, 4, 12

2012: 2, 2, 11, 3, 2, 9, 5, 2, 3

2010: 11, 3, 13, 5, 1, 10, 1, 9, 10

2008: 5, 8*, 1, 5, 10, 8, 4, 4, 10

Clues from the running

Check out where each Cambridge winner was at the bell, where they drew, and you’ll quickly see the pattern:

2018

Princess Tiffany (8): Eased to rear, mounted fast run three wide to seventh at bell, led 700.

Enhance Your Calm (3): Led.

Shez All Rock (5): Led.

Utmost Delight (12): Up handy three wide no cover at bell to park at 800.

Habibi Inta (1): Led.

Another Masterpiece (5): Led from 1200.

Eamon Maguire (10): Great run through to be one-one at bell.

Winterfell (1): Led.

Pat’s Delight (2): Led, trailed bell.

Samantha Ottley drove a pearler on Rocker Band to win in 2016 after being pushed back to four deep on the markers.2016

Rocker Band (9): Trailed, three fence bell, then four deep.

Custodian (5): Led.

Partyon (4): Led.

Monbet (8): One out, three back at bell, moved 800 to park at 600.

Picadilly Princess (2): Trailed bell.

More The Bettor (12): Ninth three wide, three back at bell then sent forward.

Donegal Bettorgretch (5): Parked bell.

Field Marshal (1): Led.

Heaven Rocks (5): Three wide to lead at bell.

2014

Adore Me (5): Charged until finding the top at 1200.

Monbet (4): Three wide to park at bell.

Venus Serena (13): Sixth, three wide and one back at bell, parked 700.

King Denny (4): Three wide to park at bell.

Supersonic Miss (11): Sixth three wide and one back at bell, parked 700.

Sky Major (13): Four back on outer at bell, fifth and four wide home turn.

Sheemon (13): Seventh, three back and three wide at bell.

Beaudiene Boaz (4): Three fence at bell.

Franco Nelson (12): Fourth last at bell, sweeping run three and four wide from the 800.

2012

Trainer Colin Butler and his ill wife Raelyne celebrate with driver Phil Butcher after Charlemagne’s $90 upset in 2012. Butcher started from the inside of the second row but was able to weave into the one-one at the bell.Pembrook’s Delight (2): Trailed bell.

Royal Aspirations (2): Led.

Onlyforyou (11): Parked just after bell.

Cyclone U Bolt (3): Led bell then trailed.

O Baby (2): Led, trailed bell.

Charlemagne (9): One-one at bell.

Five Card Draw (5): Led.

Terror To Love (2): Led.

Smolda (3): Parked bell, led 650.

2010

Beaudiene Bad Babe (11): Three wide to lead at bell.

Kylie Ree (3): Led.

Bettor Cover Lover (13): Four wide to lead at bell.

Vulcan (5): Up to lead at bell.

De Lovely (1): Led.

I Can Doosit (10): Four back, mounted attack 600.

Major Mark (1): Led.

Tintin In America (9): Trailed bell.

Sir Lincoln (10): One out one back.

2008

Nearea Franco (5): Led.

Muscle And Power (8*): Pressed wide to lead at 1200. (* Later disqualified)

Safin (1): Led, trailed bell.

Lauraella (5): One-one at bell.

Sovereignty (10): Nice run through to be third at bell.

Changeover (8): Mounted lightning run from the rear at the bell to park at the 800 then led.

Springbank Richard (4): Led.

Fiery Falcon (4): Led.

Highview Tommy (10): One-one at bell.