Tommy Lincoln battles bravely for fourth last week behind Governor Jujon, Northview Hustler, markers, and Mach Da Vinci.
Tommy’s treacherous draw - he’s at the mercy of how hard two hot former Kiwis run the gate
By Barry Lichter • 13 April 2023
The driving tactics on two former Kiwis will decide whether Tommy Lincoln has any chance at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Lincoln Farms’ six-year-old toiler has again drawn badly in the 1660 metre feature, at the mercy of what goes on ahead of him from the inside of the second row.
And trainer Mark Dux says the decisions Nathan Dawson makes on new Kiwi import Hot And Treacherous and, more critically, Shane Graham behind gate flyer Turn It Up, will decide Tommy’s fate.
“The one horse (American Outlaw) isn’t the best one to draw behind because it doesn’t burn off the gate, so we have to hope only one horse gets across him and holds.
“Three back gives us a chance of earning a cheque, we can finish in the top three. But if we end up four back we’re in a spot of bother. Then a lot of things have to go your way.”
Dux can see Hot And Treacherous first on the scene given how well the former Bunty and Gareth Hughes-trained pacer has been trialling. He has won both his 1660 metre preps, the latest in a 1:52.7 mile rate.
Hot And Treacherous, obscured, only just goes down to Copy That in a New Zealand record 3:16 for 2700 metres at Cambridge last October. PHOTO: Chanelle Lawson.“Hot And Treacherous looks tough to beat but if he crosses the one, then Turn It Up crosses him, we’ll be four back.
“It all comes down to what Shane does. If he thinks he can’t cross, he might drive Turn It Up quietly, then we’re only three back and I’d be rapt.”
Dux says he’s “over the moon” with how Tommy is racing.
“He went terrific again last week. They were going that slow he had to roll up alongside them. And he got tired only in the last 50 metres.”
Dux says it’s very frustrating taking the horse to the races knowing how well he’s going but continually being taken out by impossible draws.
“He’s actually done a good job. He’s won something like A$48,000 since we could have sold him so it was probably the right decision to keep him.”
Tommy’s earnings are now well over A$200,000, with NZ$97,515 from eight wins in New Zealand and A$112,119 from a further eight wins in Queensland.
“And he’s got more to come.”
Hot And Treacherous, the winner of 11 races and NZ$249,150, will be having his first start for trainer Jack Butler and owner Clinton Livingstone, and first since New Year’s Eve when 12 lengths fourth behind Alta Wiseguy, Copy That and Kango in the Franklin Cup at Alexandra Park.
His last win was over a mile at Auckland last November in 1:55.4.
Tommy Lincoln races at 9.49pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
