Tommy has the Will but second row draw on Saturday night makes it tougher
By Barry Lichter • 16 September 2021
Tommy Lincoln mighty have drawn badly but trainer Mark Dux is confident he will run boldly again on Saturday night after placing in one of the fastest miles ever run at Albion Park last week.
Dux expertly predicted Tommy Lincoln would get the run of the race in the one-one last Saturday and when top junior Angus Garrard produced Tommy Lincoln he made ground strongly to be the best of Will The Wizard’s rivals in a sizzling 1:50.6 mile rate.
The time for the 1660 metres was just two tenths of a second outside the track record jointly held by champion pacer Themightyquinn (2014) and Cruz (2020) and further underlined Dux’s belief that Tommy would now continue to hold his own in the free-for-all grade.
While beaten 12.5 metres by Will The Wizard, who reeled off successive quarters in 27.2, 28.3, 26.9 and 28.2, Tommy Lincoln did well considering he had to come wide to make his run.
“It would have been nice to have been on the fence rather than coming around them but he raced terrific.
“I keep scratching my head about why people are thinking twice about buying him. What more can he do? If you wanted to buy one, there’s nothing wrong with him.”
Dux knows Tommy’s task will be harder this week as the sole horse on the second row.
“But there’s a bit of speed in the race and they’ll go solid again. Getting through the traffic will be the problem - he’s got to get round the slow ones - and when they’re running such fast times you can’t afford to be going backwards.”
The key to the race, says Dux, is what kind of a run Will The Wizard gets from the outside of the gate.
“If he goes straight to the top we can’t beat him. We’ll be a lot further back this week and you can’t take off a long way from home.
“But Franco Hampton has a lot of speed and they may park Will The Wizard. If they do, he’s no good thing.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 10.10pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
