Tommy deserves to break drought and he can lead and win at Albion Park on Saturday night

Tommy Lincoln gets his best chance to break a 10-month winning drought when he finally lines up with a leading draw at Albion Park on Saturday night.

And with none of the best horses in Queensland against him, and a strong chance to lead from gate three, trainer Mark Dux believes Tommy could have found the right race.

“It’s a good race for us. From the alley he should get all the favours and the field he’s racing isn’t as strong as usual so I think he’s a really good chance.”

Tommy might not have won a race since March last year but it’s not as if he hasn’t been racing well - among those 23 starts he has racked up five seconds behind topliners like Blacksadance (twice), Turn It Up and Northview Hustler, often running the fastest sectionals.

But with the free-for-all horses posting super fast times week in and week out, barrier draws, and gate speed have become all important.

Tommy Lincoln is closing in on $200,000 in earnings.So for Tommy to advance his six win and A$85,558 winnings in Brisbane, and reach a career total of $200,000, he now needs all favours - just the scenario Dux sees panning out this weekend.

“I thought his run last week was super,” said Dux of Tommy’s death seat sixth behind Blacksadance, Turn It Up, Deus Ex, Northview Hustler and Rock Bottom.

“Things didn’t go to plan. We thought we’d be one-one behind Blacksadance but when the leader handed up to Blacksadance it ended our race.

“To work so hard and still be there on the corner … he couldn’t have gone any better. He knocked up only late, and the driver didn’t pull the plugs, it was no use knocking him around.”

Tommy clocked the fastest middle half of the race in 56.61 and, despite being eased down at the finish ran his last half in 55.49, travelling an extra 18.7 metres overall, more than any of the five who beat him home.

For all that it won’t be a snip for Tommy on Saturday night with Dux seeing “a couple of others who go all right.”

Best of them on paper is Manila Playboy, winner of the Group III Garrards Purse at Redcliffe last June.

“His draw is a bit awkward but, while his recent numbers don’t look that good, he hasn’t had good trips.”

Captain Nemo lacked his usual punch last week. PHOTO: Dan Costello.Dux doesn’t know what to make of Captain Nemo’s ordinary fourth last week when he hit the lead a round from home, like in his previous winning run, yet found little in the stretch.

From being a hot favourite last week, Captain Nemo will start at much longer odds in the second race on Saturday night, after drawing the inside of the second row.

“It wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a good race but I can’t say why he didn’t race any good last week. Once he found the front I thought he’d be too good but his driver said he didn’t travel anywhere in the run and when he asked him there was nothing there. That’s not the normal Nemo, he usually has plenty of punch.

“He had a bit of a blow after the race - he was blowing harder than the run suggested he should have - but I can’t pinpoint anything.

“He didn’t show at home that he was tired from the previous week and he’s been feeling super this week.

“Maybe it was because he’d had a few hard races in a row but that’s just grasping at straws. He’s a good-doing horse who licks his bowl, he doesn’t miss a feed.

“If you forgive his last run - and they can all have a bad one - he can be right in it this week. If the one horse (Delightful Reason) leads it puts us in the race right up to our ears.

Dux says Delightful Reason has the gate speed to lead if they choose to do so - “two races back it came out charging and they ran 25.7 for the first quarter.”

But the mare trailed in her winning run last week (courtesy of an inside second row draw).

“Even if we end up three back he should still run a nice race and if the splits go his way …”

Captain Nemo races at 8.54pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.Tommy Lincoln races at 9.32pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.