Tommy Lincoln, extreme left, powers home up the Redcliffe markers after being late clear.
Tommy can’t win the Gold Cup at Redcliffe but he’s racing better than a 100-to-one chance
By Barry Lichter • 24 June 2022
Realistically, Tommy Lincoln can’t win Saturday night’s A$106,000 Redcliffe Gold Cup.
But while the barrier draw has all but extinguished his chances in the Group One 2613 metre stand, trainer Mark Dux says the horse is racing out of his skin and is no 100-to-one no-hoper.
“It’s a strong field, these horse are almost as hard as you’ll get here, Spirit Of St Louis aside. But while I’m disappointed we didn’t come up with a nicer alley, he’s good enough to be there. And at least we’re not going there thinking we’re a million-to-one.
“Everything is against us but, if they go hard, while not a realistic winning chance, we know he’ll finish off hard.”
Dux says from four on the second row all he can do is drive Tommy quietly and hope for a bit of luck.
“You’re kidding yourself if you think you can pop out at the 1200 and circle them. If you spend all your pennies mid-race you’ll have nothing left at the finish.
“We’ve just got to put him on a helmet and if they go hard he’ll follow and have something to offer. It will just be a matter of getting the right splits when we need them.”
While Tommy’s form line might look ordinary, and he was beaten 11 metres when seventh last start, Dux says the horse is racing really well, without any luck.
Tommy ended up four deep on the markers last week at Redcliffe and Dux says had he not been stuck behind a horse going nowhere he might have landed a cheque.
“We were held up until we straightened and I had to drag him right across their heels and only had 60 to 80 metres to wind up.
“He really hit the line hard, he was charging. Apart from the first three horses you could have thrown a blanket over the others and I thought he hit the line better than anything else in the field.”
Tommy Lincoln recorded closing sectionals of 55.5 and 27.39, on a par with winner Manlia Playboy’s 55.46 and 27.45.
“I’m more than happy with him and he’s done super since that last race.”
Captain Nemo in the pink colours, over-racing in the death seat at his last start.Earlier in the night Lincoln Farms’ stablemate Captain Nemo lines up for the first time in seven weeks during which time things have hardly gone right for him.
“We’ve had a few hiccups,” Dux said. “He had muscle tie-up and then we had all that rain, and he missed a trial when he was a bit off colour.
“I haven’t been over the moon with him but his work in last couple of hitouts has been good and I’ve been much happier. He’s nearly back to normal.”
Dux has had to “throw the horse in the deep end” on Saturday night after trying repeatedly to get him into easier midweek races which haven’t held up.
“He needs to race. I’m hoping for a forward showing but it will all depend on where he ends up in the run.
“The one draw is good but I won’t be rushing him out. Every time I’ve tried that I don’t think he’s been as effective. I’ll let him come off at his own bat and play it by ear.”
Captain Nemo races at 6.44pm NZ time at Redcliffe on Saturday night.
Tommy Lincoln races at 10.13pm NZ time at Redcliffe on Saturday night.
More news in Harness
‘The Kid’ flying but Argyle up against it to add good points in novel drivers’ challenge
Street’s emotion-charged night in the winners’ room - sad loss before a record four wins
It’s green jackets all the way and Ray fancies improving surprise packet Prince Lincoln
The Lincoln Wave secret is well and truly out now, but who was that mystery underbidder?
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
