The Magic Man will need plenty of wizardry to beat Merlin at Auckland on Thursday night
Colonel Lincoln is shaping up as Lincoln Farms’ best two-year-old but trainer Ray Green doesn’t expect him to be able to match the unbeaten Merlin at Auckland on Thursday night.
Punters got a sneak preview of the likely result of the tenth race when an identical field contested a workout at Pukekohe last Friday.
And while Colonel Lincoln led that 2050 metre heat, it was the swooping home turn run by Merlin that caught the eye, charging home from last to beat Son Of Mac by half a head, with Colonel Lincoln a length back in third.
Unbeaten in four races, three workouts and two trials, Merlin will be having his first race for five months and has drawn the outside gate, but he will still be at short odds to win.
“Colonel Lincoln went great at the workouts,” Green said. “I like him, I think he’s got a good future but Merlin and a couple of the others might have a bit more speed than him. When they stretch out the distance a bit, that’s when he’ll shine. We’re aiming him at the Sires Stakes Final at Addington.”
That said, Green likes the fact Colonel Lincoln has drawn two, from where he’s likely to be given a perfect trip by driver Maurice McKendry.
“It’s always hard to predict how these races will be run but in small fields they can just walk and roar up the straight.”
That’s why Green says his second runner Frankie Major might struggle on Thursday night.
“He’s drawn badly because he’s won a couple of races so we’ll be looking for a bit of luck with him. But he’s always a chance of getting a cheque if things go his way. He’s pretty good at the sit-and-sprint caper.”
Another horse which Green likes, but probably can’t win, is Riverman Sam who is the sole horse on the front line in race seven but come up against the super talented Old Town Road.
“John Dickie’s horse will be hard to beat, even from 30 metres, but I don’t see why we can’t get some money. He went well last time and the only real glitch in his form line is when he tied up. I always give him a chance and he should bounce back.”
Riverman Sam has won from a stand and over 2700 metres so can’t be discounted as a place prospect.
My Copy and Major Grace strike a more winnable race in the last, drawn three and four.
“Major Grace was good at Cambridge last start. She’s no star but she’s a trier and should be right there.
“You can forget My Copy went round last time, it was a virtual no-race for him as Maurice (Mckendry) said he got multiple checks. He could be right in the fray, and even win, if he got the right trip.”
Green finds it hard to give Riverboy Ben much chance in the sixth race where he comes up against some smart three-year-olds, including Miki Noel, Montana DJ, Ultimate Missile and Blazing Louie.
“His last two starts have been vast improvements though. He was a little unlucky last time, he should have finished second or third.
“He’s learning to settle down a bit. He’s been beating himself.”
Green says it looks like being one of those nights where the team will need plenty of luck - “but we have some place chances.”
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Ray’s comments
Tuesday at Auckland
Race 2: Colonel Lincoln
3.39pm
“He’s a beautiful horse, and a quality mover, who’s finally demonstrating his ability. He’s done a lot of work and has had a good, solid build-up so he’ll cop a bit of racing now and I don’t see why he won’t be in it again.”
Race 2: Frisco Bay
3.39pm
“If you put him in front or in the breeze he over-races. He needs a run where he can relax in behind - every time he’s got a two-hole trip he’s won. He’s a bit one-dimensional in that respect but he’s got a lot of speed and, if he’d drawn better, I’d have labelled him.”
Race 3: Lincoln Lou
4.04pm
“On paper, he should be favourite. You can’t fault that last run in the Golden Gait and if he repeats that he’s the one to beat. He seems to be back to where we had him before. He’s been incredibly unlucky in a lot of his races. We don’t need good luck, we’re just looking for no bad luck.”
Race 3: Kevin Kline
4.04pm
“I can’t see him beating our other two. I don’t think we’ll see the best of him until well into his three-year-old year. He’s a big, rangy, slow developing horse. We’ll race him on Tuesday then give him a bit of a break.”
Race 3: Debbie Lincoln
4.04pm
“I know this is a step-up in grade, and she’s drawn the outside, but I’ve got a feeling she could be up to it. Her driver, Maurice McKendry, is very enthusiastic about her and he’s no fool. He’s been happy every time he’s sat behind her. She keeps getting better and potentially could be a high class three-year-old filly. I’m quite excited about her.”
Race 4: Sugar Ray Lincoln
4.30pm
“He won’t burn off any quick beginners but he showed he could hold his own from the inside when he won two starts back. He’s just got to do it without doing anything tricky. He can pace roughly, he’s not the complete package yet, but when the penny drops he’ll be a serious horse.”
Race 9: The Big Lebowski
7.17pm
“I wasn’t disappointed with his last run. It’s hard to win those races from long back marks at Cambridge - Copy That had to go a New Zealand record to do it. He’s as good as he can be at the moment but these are the best horses in commission and we’ll be grateful for what we can get.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Cambridge
Race 3: Onyx Shard
6.38pm
Update: Scratched
“She can get some of it. She has a good draw so should get a good trip. She’s training on well.”
Race 4: Commander Lincoln
7.09pm
“The draw doesn’t matter with him as he’s not one to leave the gate. I thought he went super last time. He got home really well and was unlucky not to run second or even win.”
Race 7: Lincoln La Moose
8.33pm
“Forget that last run. He half choked when Zac tried to restrain him and started pulling. He’s got a better draw this time, should hop straight into the trail, and hopefully get home as well as when he won the time before.”