Ten years on from Sir Lincoln, Ray believes the Green troops can defeat the blue army

He did it with Sir Lincoln 10 years ago and on Tuesday Lincoln Farms’ trainer Ray Green believes he has the firepower to down the All Stars again in the $170,000 Sires’ Stakes Final at Addington.

Sir Lincoln wasn’t given much chance of beating Mark Purdon’s $1.30 shot Kotare Mach in 2009 but overcame a tough trip to score decisively by three and a half lengths.

On Tuesday the Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen powerhouse will be shooting for its sixth straight win in the three-year-old feature, and have six runners engaged including four of the first five favourites, One Change, Italian Lad, Flying Even Bettor and Aqua Sancta.

But Green believes the All Stars troop is not as dominant as in previous years and in Line Up ($23) and Copy That ($31) he has two horses who are well up to beating them, given the right run.

“These two colts are as good as, if not better, than any horse I’ve brought down to Christchurch before - for any race.

“It’s very difficult to compare them with Sir Lincoln who was a big strong horse, with high speed as well, because horses are generally faster now. The breed is getting faster all the time and what’s good enough last year ain’t going to cut it this year.

“But we were lucky Sir Lincoln got carried into the race at the right time. It’s hard to work out who’ll do what this year but it will come down to who gets the best trip.”

Line Up … what does Anthony Butt do from gate five?Green is not sure where Line Up, in Emilio Rosati’s blue and gold silks, will get to from five on the gate, with three All Stars runners drawn inside him, and he isn’t about to start telling top horseman Anthony Butt how to drive him.

“From a driver’s perspective I believe the worst thing you can do is to have a plan. If it goes awry, blind panic can set in. It’s best to keep your options open and let it unfold.”

Whether Butt will want to push out Line Up is debatable as he was a little unbalanced early in last week’s cup trial at Addington, Butt forced to take hold when leading because the colt put in a few funny steps.

But Green was happy when Butt told him Line Up was jogging all the way and he didn’t push him in the run home.

“I think they’ll go hard early because the ones drawn well will race for the lead and John Dunn will try to hold up on Above N Beyond - he won’t want the Purdon horses to cross him.

Copy That … can come with spectacular late runs but only one horse in the last 10 years has won the Final without being on speed at the 900.“That should allow the horses drawn the back row to come into it and Copy That has shown us a couple of times that he can come with a spectacular run.”

Copy That was hugely impressive in the cup trial, driver Blair Orange swooping from the back and forced to pull back hard close to home when he ran into a brick wall.

David Butcher gets the reins for owner Merv Butterworth on Tuesday with Orange driving second favourite Italian Lad, both horses capable of belting home late.

Race stats telling

The race statistics for the last 10 years make interesting reading with only two winners drawing inside barrier eight.

But that doesn’t mean the race is easy to win from the back. Only one has managed to come from the rear at the bell, Have Faith In Me improving very wide on the home turn and flashing home late to win as Hughie Green threw it away by veering in and jumping a marker peg.

A pattern of being on pace by the 900 emerges as you drill down into the winners’ runs:

2018: Favourite Ultimate Sniper (12) was carted forward three wide to park at the bell.

2017: Favourite Chase Auckland (11) trailed Lincoln Farms’ King Of Swing to the lane to run a race record 2:16.1.

2016: Ultimate Machete (8) was three wide with cover, working forward to park at the 900.

2015: Favourite Lazarus (11) went forward solo three wide to park at the bell.

2014: Have Faith In Me (14) came three wide with cover from the back at the 800, improved wide turning in and rounded them up late.

2013: Tiger Tara (6) was wide with cover and looped them to lead at the bell.

2012: The 2/1 favourite Franco Nelson (3) led, then trailed.

2011: Texican (13) led up the three wide train to park at the 900.

2010: Gold Ace (9) raced three wide with no cover from the 1100 and just caught Hands Christian who had a soft lead.

2009: Sir Lincoln (15) was in the three wide train early and left parked from the 1000.

* Ultimate Sniper paced 2:19 in winning last year, the first year the race was extended from 1950 metres to 1980 metres. The New Zealand record of 2:18.5 was set by Cruz Bromac in winning last year’s NZ Free-for-all.