Talking tactics with Ants: Three factors that could help Copy That capture the Rising Sun
Champion reinsman Anthony Butt says he’ll be driving Copy That with supreme confidence in Saturday night’s A$250,000 Rising Sun at Albion Park but his winning chances hinge on three critical elements.
- “I don’t want Krug getting an easy lead. If he only has to cruise the first 400 or 800 metres he’ll be awfully hard to beat.”
- “A lot depends on what happens to Expensive Ego from two on the second row - whether he gets boxed in.”
- “We need a fast pace and some luck from 13 - sometimes it’s a road block and other times things open up.”
Butt says he’s not one to get hung up on barrier draws so while his first thought on Copy That drawing the outside of the second row was ‘it could have been better’, “you don’t know if it’s a bad draw until after the race.
“Sometimes what appears to be a good draw can be a bad draw.”
Take Cran Dalgety’s Krug, for example. Gifted the pole under a condition of the new race that gives three-year-olds the two inside alleys, he looks a ready-made leader.
“But I’m sure there will be a bit of action up front. Hopefully Krug will have to do some work to hold the lead. Kowalski Analysis (gate four) is very fast out. Whether he can cross Krug is another thing but there’s sure to be plenty of early pressure.
“If you’re attacked you have to chuck all your eggs into one basket.”
Expensive Ego, who showed just how tough he is when a breezing second in King Of Swing’s 1:49.2 Miracle Mile, is a deserving favourite but if driver Luke McCarthy can’t extricate him early, he could be in trouble.
“He’s a good all round horse but he’s like Copy That from his draw - it’s in the lap of the gods.”
Butt, with 37 years’ experience in the cart, says it’s impossible to pre-plan your tactics.
“You just have to judge the tempo of the race and keep an eye on where the other good ones are around you. But it’s a quality field so I’m sure it will be run pretty solidly and I’ve seen plenty of big races where good horses have won from the back.”
Confidence booster
Butt says Copy That’s effort to do just that in last week’s Wondai’s Mate 1660 was a huge confidence booster for him.
“His run was unbelievable. Albion Park is a notoriously hard track to come from back and wide because the leaders get away. The track was also rain-affected and it’s hard to pick up speed on an off track.
“But he picked up speed so quickly. Not many horses I’ve driven could have done what he did.
“He had to come from the fence to four or five wide in a few strides. And because he was going at right angles so quickly he put in a rough step or two but his acceleration was explosive. That’s not easy to do.
“I was massively surprised he picked them up. It was a performance of real quality.”
Butt says it gave him a lot of satisfaction that Copy That showed such versatility.
“Everyone was saying he was only a front-runner but now I know I have more strings to my bow. It’s good for a driver when a horse does that, it gives you confidence because you know you’ve got options.”
While all the pundits are tipping Krug, Expensive Ego and Copy That, Butt says the chances don’t end there.
“There are another couple just below the favourites like Amazing Dream. If she gets a nice run (from three) and does no work, she’ll be hard to beat.”
Dealer in with real Consolation shot
Copy That’s stablemate American Dealer might have disappointed his followers last week when only second but Butt gives him a real shot at winning the A$30,000 Rising Sun Consolation earlier in the night.
On first viewing, against only six three-year-olds, American Dealer seemed out of sorts, dropping off the back of the parked horse down the back straight, chased up, and failing to catch Kashed Up, who enjoyed the trail.
“He was real casual in the run - he’s laid back about everything - and got off the bit a couple of times, and I had to get the plugs out down the back.
“But I was pleased with how he got home in 27.7 and 26.9 and he hit the line really well.
“He’s the type of horse who’ll go better in the bigger races because he’ll follow a faster pace. That will take a bit of speed out of the others but it won’t worry him.”
Kashed Up clocked a mile rate of just 1:56.5 in the win, compared with the 1:53.3 American Dealer ran when downing Krug and company in a Sires’ Stakes heat last Ashburton last October.
“He just needs to travel a bit better mid-race. Hopefully after a race or two over here he’ll wake up a bit.”
Butt says American Dealer handled the track really well last week and got round the corners fine, unlike his debut effort on the course when, wearing longer hopples, his gait was a little rough.
“It’s an even bunch but he’s in with a good shot.”
American Dealer will re-engage wth Krug in his next two runs in the A$30,000 South East Derby (2138m) on July 17 and A$100,000 Queensland Derby (2680m) on July 24.
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Ray’s comments
Tuesday twilight at Cambridge
Race 2: Colonel Lincoln
1.35pm
“This looks a good race for him. We haven’t done anything with him since Thursday but, with natural improvement after such a long spell, he has to be the one to beat.”
Race 5: Onyx Shard
3.04pm
“She should be dangerous from two. It was a good effort to sit parked last week and you’d expect natural improvement from that fresh-up run. She’s a pretty good filly.”
Race 5: Commander Lincoln
3.05pm
“Onyx Shard looks a better chance from two but he has the advantage of being hard fit.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
3.29pm
“This is a big drop in class for him and he is definitely the one to beat, on paper. From the inside draw you’re obligated to leave, or risk being crossed, but he gets out okay.”
Race 6: Debbie Lincoln
3.29pm
“It was a better run than it looked last time when she was held up in the home straight. She’s improving dramatically all the time and I expect her to give them a fright.”
Race 7: Lincoln La Moose
3.58pm
“The winning time was only 2:47 last week but It wouldn’t have mattered what time they went, he was going to win. This is harder but there’s no reason he couldn’t do it again.”
Race 9: The Big Lebowski
4.57pm
“He stands over them on class and you can’t fault what he’s doing. He’s a big winning chance, despite the 35 metre handicap. He’s the only one on the mark so he should step well and be the one to beat.”