Second row draws make it tricky on Saturday night but Nemo and Argyle are in great trim
Argyle and Captain Nemo both went close to winning at Albion Park last week but second row draws on Saturday night could consign them to collecting only place money again this week.
Argyle’s effort to run second to $151 outsider Murphy’s Reward last Saturday thrilled trainer Mark Dux after he launched on a solo three wide run from the back and came up only half a neck short with a 55.44 last half.
And Captain Nemo was also right at the top of his game, rallying bravely in the run home to finish just 4.4 metres and half a head from the winner Windy Hill Wally after being given a sweet one-out-two-back trip by gun junior Angus Garrard.
Dux fancies Nemo as the better winning chance this week but says whether he can break through in the fourth race will be determined by the tactics employed by the driver of the pole horse Stormtide, whom he follows out.
“The one horse has gate speed, if they want to use it, and if he leads that would be perfect for us. But I’ve got the feeling he will hand up, because they did that on Tuesday and he ran a good second.
“If they take a trail, it puts us three fence, which is still a winnable spot, but we’ll need the leaders to go strong and we’ll have to get the run at the right time.”
Dux expects Nemo to run top three but says he’s primed to win as soon as he gets the right trip.
“He just kept coming last week - he doesn’t give up very often - and Angus thought he could have won had another horse not take the inside run he was aiming for.”
Dux doesn’t believe his other runner Key Largo can beat Nemo the way the pair worked this week.
“It’s his first run back for a little while and he’s a weird horse. He can run, and he’s won nearly $200,000, but he doesn’t always go as well as he should.”
Top three
One race earlier, Argyle also looks a top three chance and Dux says he’ll be driven conservatively to earn the biggest cheque possible.
The way the race sets up, Dux says pole runner So Sirius should lead and OK Boomer, behind him on the gate, should trail, which is why they’ll start favourites.
“Argyle will find it hard to win from two the second row but if we go straight to the fence he’s a good chance to run top three. We just have to hope they go hard the last half so the ones out wide get off the bit.
“If he stays in the running line, and they go slow, he’s no hope as he’s against pretty decent horses.
“I reckon they kept So Sirius for this race as it’s a $21,000 stake, and he’s been lucky enough to draw one. He ran second last time and sat outside the leader.
“I’m sure he’ll be trying to lead but the one who could upset things is Jaccka Wally, who has a lot of gate speed. He could charge out and cross but he can do things wrong and the driver couldn’t chase him out the other day because he put in a few funny steps.”
Argyle will be handled by a new driver in Trent Dawson with Garrard sticking to Bangkok Deejay, winner of his last three starts.
“Bangkok Deejay can win again depending on how the race is run. But if So Sirius leads and backs off the pace, he probably can’t beat him.”
More news in Harness
Brace for Ray and Lincoln Farms at Cambridge but Colonel’s placing just as thrilling
Ray: Preferential draw for top fillies makes it tough for everyone else in Golden Gait series
Patient owners hoping high-priced Colonel can salute at Cambridge on Thursday night
Friday’s Lincoln Farms Franklin Cup all about the standing start manners of Aussie raider
Our runners this week
Tuesday at Cambridge
Colonel Lincoln, Onyx Shard, Commander Lincoln, Debbie Lincoln, Kevin Kline, Lincoln La Moose, The Big Lebowski.
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 2: Commander Lincoln
5.51pm
“Back to Cambridge and the easier amateur ranks he can get some of it. He’s an honest little horse who pays his way.”
Race 4: Onyx Shard
6.49pm
“She’s a nice filly who is training really well and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her in the money in spite of the outside draw. She’d be one of the best in that field and is definitely an each-way chance.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.39pm
“He hasn’t raced for nearly 21 months but his training has been good and he should go well first-up. He’s a beautiful, big horse who probably lacks a yard of speed to be a real super horse but he’s got everything else. I expect him to go well against this lot.”
Race 7: Lincoln La Moose
8.04pm
“He’s training well and has surprised us before, like when he won his first start at Cambridge like a monster after breaking on the first turn. It’s always the way when they win their first start - it makes things hard for them after that - but he’s travelling well now and is capable of being in it.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 4: Lincoln Lou
7.09pm
“He’ll be relying on a heap of good luck from the second row. His last run was a non-event. The poor little bugger couldn’t have done a better job of finding trouble. He’s trained on all right.”
Race 4: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.09pm
“He’s training really well and he showed last time what a big motor he had, losing all that ground early and still getting up to win. He’s not famous for his gate speed but as long as he gets away safely then Maurice can put him in the race at the right time. There are a lot of horses in there that aren’t that safe who could stand on their ear. Navigating through them is always a worry. He’ll need some luck but he could give them a fright.”
Race 6: Frisco Bay
8.05pm
“He obviously can’t beat Duchess Megxit or Jeremiah but if he gets a good trip he’s a chance of getting some money. Things didn’t suit him last time - being out three wide then going to the front. He’s so hot, he over-races. He goes best if he’s allowed to slop out and find the back of something, when he generally relaxes. Even if he got back a bit, that would be all right, so long as he gets sucked along.”