Realistic Mark concedes defeat on Argyle - For Real Life will smash them on Saturday night
Trainer Mark Dux doesn’t like the idea of conceding defeat but he gives Argyle zero chance of beating For Real Life at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Lincoln Farms’ pacer might be in solid form but Trent Dawson’s brilliant four-year-old stands so far above the rest of the field, Dux says all his rivals will be driving only for the minor money.
One of the most exciting pacers in Queensland, For Real Life won eight of his 11 starts last season, including the Triad Final, and is using Saturday night’s 1660 event as a warm-up for the $250,000 Chariots Of Fire in Sydney on March 2.
“It would be a brave man to say they could beat For Real Life, especially the way he trialled last week,” Dux says.
In his first serious hitout for three months, For Real Life clocked a 1:52.3 mile rate for 1660 metres at Albion Park, scoring by 14 metres and swishing home his last 800 in 54.3 and 400 in 26.3.
The For A Reason entire went even quicker in his last race in November when be blitzed the talented Frankie Ferocious over 2138 metres, clocking a 1:55.6 mile rate and flying home in 53.3, his last quarter in 25.7.
“He could sit outside them and beat them on Saturday night but no one would be silly enough to try to park him. I can see him being handed the lead and everyone else will be just hoping they can run a place.”
For Real Life, who on a 93 rating is 17 points higher than his nearest rival, gets into the race courtesy of not having won a metro race on a Saturday night - despite winning feature three-year-old races.
And from gate five, Dux says Dawson will be heading only for one spot - the top.
“Dawson knows how good the horse is and he’ll want a good hit-out before the Chariots. All the other horses will have their tongues out chasing him and he’ll run his last half in 54 something. Do the maths and you’ll see that if you’re out wide you’ll be struggling to even hold your spot. Not even our free-for-allers could beat him coming wide out.”
That’s why Dux says he can see it being a “fence race” for Argyle, who has drawn two on the second row.
“It’s crazy to think we can come wide. We’ve got to go to the fence and drive for luck. We could end up four back but that wouldn’t be that bad if Dawson turns him loose and opens the field up in the last 600 metres.
“I’m sure that’s the way we should play it, take the short cuts, or we’ll end up running fast sectionals and getting nothing.”
Argyle might have finished only sixth last week but Dux says he paced a super race, mounting a solo run from the 600.
“He did all the work improving three wide and carted the winner (Bangkok Deejay) into the race.
“I thought we was really good. He was only three metres from the second horse in a line-up across the track.”
Argyle ran the 2138 metres in a mile rate of 1:54.73, travelling an extra 31 metres and carving out closing sectionals of 28.4, 29.69, 27.55 and 29.09.
Meanwhile, Dux has given Captain Nemo a week off to freshen-up after another game run last week when a 1.5 metres second.
“The heat was killing him. It was so hot on Saturday night and it’s been catching up with him.
“He’ll be back in six weeks and by then it will have cooled down a bit. The weather should be lovely in March.”
More news in Harness
Brace for Ray and Lincoln Farms at Cambridge but Colonel’s placing just as thrilling
Ray: Preferential draw for top fillies makes it tough for everyone else in Golden Gait series
Patient owners hoping high-priced Colonel can salute at Cambridge on Thursday night
Friday’s Lincoln Farms Franklin Cup all about the standing start manners of Aussie raider
Our runners this week
Tuesday at Cambridge
Colonel Lincoln, Onyx Shard, Commander Lincoln, Debbie Lincoln, Kevin Kline, Lincoln La Moose, The Big Lebowski.
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 2: Commander Lincoln
5.51pm
“Back to Cambridge and the easier amateur ranks he can get some of it. He’s an honest little horse who pays his way.”
Race 4: Onyx Shard
6.49pm
“She’s a nice filly who is training really well and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her in the money in spite of the outside draw. She’d be one of the best in that field and is definitely an each-way chance.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.39pm
“He hasn’t raced for nearly 21 months but his training has been good and he should go well first-up. He’s a beautiful, big horse who probably lacks a yard of speed to be a real super horse but he’s got everything else. I expect him to go well against this lot.”
Race 7: Lincoln La Moose
8.04pm
“He’s training well and has surprised us before, like when he won his first start at Cambridge like a monster after breaking on the first turn. It’s always the way when they win their first start - it makes things hard for them after that - but he’s travelling well now and is capable of being in it.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 4: Lincoln Lou
7.09pm
“He’ll be relying on a heap of good luck from the second row. His last run was a non-event. The poor little bugger couldn’t have done a better job of finding trouble. He’s trained on all right.”
Race 4: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.09pm
“He’s training really well and he showed last time what a big motor he had, losing all that ground early and still getting up to win. He’s not famous for his gate speed but as long as he gets away safely then Maurice can put him in the race at the right time. There are a lot of horses in there that aren’t that safe who could stand on their ear. Navigating through them is always a worry. He’ll need some luck but he could give them a fright.”
Race 6: Frisco Bay
8.05pm
“He obviously can’t beat Duchess Megxit or Jeremiah but if he gets a good trip he’s a chance of getting some money. Things didn’t suit him last time - being out three wide then going to the front. He’s so hot, he over-races. He goes best if he’s allowed to slop out and find the back of something, when he generally relaxes. Even if he got back a bit, that would be all right, so long as he gets sucked along.”