Ray relying on Butch to ‘pull a rabbit out of the hat’ amid All Stars’ pressure in the derby
He might have the marginal favourite but the barrier draw and history tells trainer Ray Green that Friday night’s $200,000 Woodlands Northern Derby will be no stroll in the park for Copy That.
The All Stars’ Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen have dominated the derby in recent years winning four of the last five runnings, with Ultimate Sniper, Chase Auckland, Lazarus and Have Faith In Me. And in 2017 while Raukapuka Ruler, gifted the ace draw, broke their sequence Ultimate Machete looked dead unlucky to run only second, flashing late after a torrid wide run.
That coveted ace draw goes to Rasmussen’s drive One Change on Friday, whereas Copy That starts from four, with two other All Stars’ runners either side of him in Dina Bolt and Flying Even Bettor.
Copy That and David Butcher might have beaten One Change impressively in the Derby Prelude last week but the Christchurch visitor has shown in previous big races that he can take advantage of inside alleys, pipping Copy That from the ace in the Sires’ Stakes Final at Addington and taking the Sales Series Final at Auckland from two.
“One Change drawing one makes it difficult for us,” says Green. “It makes him the one to beat and we know that we’ll have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to get the job done.
Green knows there will be fireworks early in the derby - “the All Stars will know that if they beat us, they’ll win the race.”
Green can see Rasmussen lighting up One Change out of the gate to hold the lead, knowing his own Tommy Lincoln, drawn in two, is also fast away.
And the All Stars’ Flying Even Bettor is also likely to be cast into the fray early from gate five, all factors which suggest Butcher will take it easy with Copy That in the opening stanza.
“But I’ll leave the driving tactics to David - I’m not going to interfere.”
What Green does know is that Copy That is primed for a big showing for Melbourne owners Merv and Meg Butterworth in his first tilt over 2700 metres.
“I didn’t particularly want him to go 2:37 last week - we didn’t go into the race expecting to win - but he seems to have pulled up OK.
“He’s trained all right during the week. He’s not one to be flashy but that’s how you want them. They’ve got to learn to relax.
“I couldn’t fault what he did last week and if he can win again on Friday night it would stamp him as the best three-year-old down under. He’s probably got the wood on Line Up and Perfect Stride (now winning in Australia).”
Green last won the Northern Derby in 2004 with Badlands Bute and says Copy That is much more versatile.
“Badlands Bute was a nice little horse in his day, but he was more a sit-sprinter. I don’t know if he could have done it rough like Copy That who can make his own luck.”
Green isn’t fazed by the presence of the All Stars’ dominant filly Amazing Dream in the derby, especially from wide on the front row.
“She’s handling the fillies pretty easily but I watched her last week and she was getting tired at the finish of the Oaks.
“Of course we have no idea how good she is as she hasn’t fronted up to the colts yet, but usually you’d say good colts will beat good fillies.”
Lincoln Farms’ two other derby hopes Tommy Lincoln and Man Of Action will both need plenty of luck, Tommy Lincoln best placed to get the good trip he needs from gate two.
“I’ve no idea how he’ll go over 2700 metres - he’s never been past 2200 metres - but we’ll find out.
“He’s pulled up well after running third (equal) last week but he’s going to need a good run, as will Man Of Action.
“He’ll need to get a good suck along and get out at the right time.”
More news in Harness
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Ray: Preferential draw for top fillies makes it tough for everyone else in Golden Gait series
Patient owners hoping high-priced Colonel can salute at Cambridge on Thursday night
Friday’s Lincoln Farms Franklin Cup all about the standing start manners of Aussie raider
Our runners this week
Tuesday at Cambridge
Colonel Lincoln, Onyx Shard, Commander Lincoln, Debbie Lincoln, Kevin Kline, Lincoln La Moose, The Big Lebowski.
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 2: Commander Lincoln
5.51pm
“Back to Cambridge and the easier amateur ranks he can get some of it. He’s an honest little horse who pays his way.”
Race 4: Onyx Shard
6.49pm
“She’s a nice filly who is training really well and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her in the money in spite of the outside draw. She’d be one of the best in that field and is definitely an each-way chance.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.39pm
“He hasn’t raced for nearly 21 months but his training has been good and he should go well first-up. He’s a beautiful, big horse who probably lacks a yard of speed to be a real super horse but he’s got everything else. I expect him to go well against this lot.”
Race 7: Lincoln La Moose
8.04pm
“He’s training well and has surprised us before, like when he won his first start at Cambridge like a monster after breaking on the first turn. It’s always the way when they win their first start - it makes things hard for them after that - but he’s travelling well now and is capable of being in it.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 4: Lincoln Lou
7.09pm
“He’ll be relying on a heap of good luck from the second row. His last run was a non-event. The poor little bugger couldn’t have done a better job of finding trouble. He’s trained on all right.”
Race 4: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.09pm
“He’s training really well and he showed last time what a big motor he had, losing all that ground early and still getting up to win. He’s not famous for his gate speed but as long as he gets away safely then Maurice can put him in the race at the right time. There are a lot of horses in there that aren’t that safe who could stand on their ear. Navigating through them is always a worry. He’ll need some luck but he could give them a fright.”
Race 6: Frisco Bay
8.05pm
“He obviously can’t beat Duchess Megxit or Jeremiah but if he gets a good trip he’s a chance of getting some money. Things didn’t suit him last time - being out three wide then going to the front. He’s so hot, he over-races. He goes best if he’s allowed to slop out and find the back of something, when he generally relaxes. Even if he got back a bit, that would be all right, so long as he gets sucked along.”