David Butcher has Copy That nicely in control of the Derby Prelude as One Change rushes home late.
Ray relying on Butch to ‘pull a rabbit out of the hat’ amid All Stars’ pressure in the derby
By Barry Lichter • 4 March 2020
He might have the marginal favourite but the barrier draw and history tells trainer Ray Green that Friday night’s $200,000 Woodlands Northern Derby will be no stroll in the park for Copy That.
The All Stars’ Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen have dominated the derby in recent years winning four of the last five runnings, with Ultimate Sniper, Chase Auckland, Lazarus and Have Faith In Me. And in 2017 while Raukapuka Ruler, gifted the ace draw, broke their sequence Ultimate Machete looked dead unlucky to run only second, flashing late after a torrid wide run.
That coveted ace draw goes to Rasmussen’s drive One Change on Friday, whereas Copy That starts from four, with two other All Stars’ runners either side of him in Dina Bolt and Flying Even Bettor.
Copy That and David Butcher might have beaten One Change impressively in the Derby Prelude last week but the Christchurch visitor has shown in previous big races that he can take advantage of inside alleys, pipping Copy That from the ace in the Sires’ Stakes Final at Addington and taking the Sales Series Final at Auckland from two.
“One Change drawing one makes it difficult for us,” says Green. “It makes him the one to beat and we know that we’ll have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to get the job done.
Green knows there will be fireworks early in the derby - “the All Stars will know that if they beat us, they’ll win the race.”
Green can see Rasmussen lighting up One Change out of the gate to hold the lead, knowing his own Tommy Lincoln, drawn in two, is also fast away.
And the All Stars’ Flying Even Bettor is also likely to be cast into the fray early from gate five, all factors which suggest Butcher will take it easy with Copy That in the opening stanza.
“But I’ll leave the driving tactics to David - I’m not going to interfere.”
What Green does know is that Copy That is primed for a big showing for Melbourne owners Merv and Meg Butterworth in his first tilt over 2700 metres.
Ray Green on the phone to owner Merv Butterworth after Copy That’s Derby Prelude win.“I didn’t particularly want him to go 2:37 last week - we didn’t go into the race expecting to win - but he seems to have pulled up OK.
“He’s trained all right during the week. He’s not one to be flashy but that’s how you want them. They’ve got to learn to relax.
“I couldn’t fault what he did last week and if he can win again on Friday night it would stamp him as the best three-year-old down under. He’s probably got the wood on Line Up and Perfect Stride (now winning in Australia).”
Green last won the Northern Derby in 2004 with Badlands Bute and says Copy That is much more versatile.
“Badlands Bute was a nice little horse in his day, but he was more a sit-sprinter. I don’t know if he could have done it rough like Copy That who can make his own luck.”
Badlands Bute … won the Northern Derby - New Zealand Derby double for Lincoln Farms in 2004.Green isn’t fazed by the presence of the All Stars’ dominant filly Amazing Dream in the derby, especially from wide on the front row.
“She’s handling the fillies pretty easily but I watched her last week and she was getting tired at the finish of the Oaks.
“Of course we have no idea how good she is as she hasn’t fronted up to the colts yet, but usually you’d say good colts will beat good fillies.”
Lincoln Farms’ two other derby hopes Tommy Lincoln and Man Of Action will both need plenty of luck, Tommy Lincoln best placed to get the good trip he needs from gate two.
“I’ve no idea how he’ll go over 2700 metres - he’s never been past 2200 metres - but we’ll find out.
“He’s pulled up well after running third (equal) last week but he’s going to need a good run, as will Man Of Action.
“He’ll need to get a good suck along and get out at the right time.”
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
