Ray relying on Butch to ‘pull a rabbit out of the hat’ amid All Stars’ pressure in the derby
He might have the marginal favourite but the barrier draw and history tells trainer Ray Green that Friday night’s $200,000 Woodlands Northern Derby will be no stroll in the park for Copy That.
The All Stars’ Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen have dominated the derby in recent years winning four of the last five runnings, with Ultimate Sniper, Chase Auckland, Lazarus and Have Faith In Me. And in 2017 while Raukapuka Ruler, gifted the ace draw, broke their sequence Ultimate Machete looked dead unlucky to run only second, flashing late after a torrid wide run.
That coveted ace draw goes to Rasmussen’s drive One Change on Friday, whereas Copy That starts from four, with two other All Stars’ runners either side of him in Dina Bolt and Flying Even Bettor.
Copy That and David Butcher might have beaten One Change impressively in the Derby Prelude last week but the Christchurch visitor has shown in previous big races that he can take advantage of inside alleys, pipping Copy That from the ace in the Sires’ Stakes Final at Addington and taking the Sales Series Final at Auckland from two.
“One Change drawing one makes it difficult for us,” says Green. “It makes him the one to beat and we know that we’ll have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to get the job done.
Green knows there will be fireworks early in the derby - “the All Stars will know that if they beat us, they’ll win the race.”
Green can see Rasmussen lighting up One Change out of the gate to hold the lead, knowing his own Tommy Lincoln, drawn in two, is also fast away.
And the All Stars’ Flying Even Bettor is also likely to be cast into the fray early from gate five, all factors which suggest Butcher will take it easy with Copy That in the opening stanza.
“But I’ll leave the driving tactics to David - I’m not going to interfere.”
What Green does know is that Copy That is primed for a big showing for Melbourne owners Merv and Meg Butterworth in his first tilt over 2700 metres.
“I didn’t particularly want him to go 2:37 last week - we didn’t go into the race expecting to win - but he seems to have pulled up OK.
“He’s trained all right during the week. He’s not one to be flashy but that’s how you want them. They’ve got to learn to relax.
“I couldn’t fault what he did last week and if he can win again on Friday night it would stamp him as the best three-year-old down under. He’s probably got the wood on Line Up and Perfect Stride (now winning in Australia).”
Green last won the Northern Derby in 2004 with Badlands Bute and says Copy That is much more versatile.
“Badlands Bute was a nice little horse in his day, but he was more a sit-sprinter. I don’t know if he could have done it rough like Copy That who can make his own luck.”
Green isn’t fazed by the presence of the All Stars’ dominant filly Amazing Dream in the derby, especially from wide on the front row.
“She’s handling the fillies pretty easily but I watched her last week and she was getting tired at the finish of the Oaks.
“Of course we have no idea how good she is as she hasn’t fronted up to the colts yet, but usually you’d say good colts will beat good fillies.”
Lincoln Farms’ two other derby hopes Tommy Lincoln and Man Of Action will both need plenty of luck, Tommy Lincoln best placed to get the good trip he needs from gate two.
“I’ve no idea how he’ll go over 2700 metres - he’s never been past 2200 metres - but we’ll find out.
“He’s pulled up well after running third (equal) last week but he’s going to need a good run, as will Man Of Action.
“He’ll need to get a good suck along and get out at the right time.”
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Ray’s comments
Tuesday at Addington
Race 4: The Big Lebowski
1.32pm
“His run at the cup trials on Wednesday has set him up nicely and I’m sure he’ll go well. He’s got the draw (four) and the driver (Blair Orange) and the horse is in a good place at the moment. He should be right in the fray.”
Ray’s comments
Friday at Addington
Race 12: The Big Lebowski
7.48pm
“He comes in to six with scratchings but there’s plenty of speed inside him so he’s going to need a bit of luck. But I’m sure he’ll go a good race as he’s right on top of his game. He’s pulled up well from cup day.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Cambridge
Race 7: Kevin Kline
8.33pm
“I’d say he’s the one to beat. He certainly deserves to be favourite as the others have been around for a while. He’s a big, gangly horse who has time written all over him but he’s getting stronger all the time and he’s doing everything right now. The raw ability is there - he’s got a bit of speed - and he’s been running good fractions at the trials and getting home well.”
Race 11: Commander Lincoln
10.22pm
“Some of these look a lot better than he’s used to running against but they’re in there for a reason. He’s on the second row but he’s always running on and I’m sure he’ll go his usual, honest race.”