Mark Dux gets the best out of Captain Nemo at Albion Park last week. PHOTO: Dan Costello.
Nemo’s the go at Albion Park on Friday night but speed map against Tommy on Saturday
By Barry Lichter • 30 September 2021
Captain Nemo can repeat his brave win of last week at Albion Park on Friday night but the speed map looks dead against Tommy Lincoln there on Saturday.
Trainer-driver Mark Dux says, barring bad luck, Captain Nemo can win the eighth race and not even the prospect of a wet track should stop him from fighting out the finish.
“We’ve had a bit of rain and there’s supposed to be a lot more coming but that won’t worry him.
“I think he is probably the best horse in the race and it will just come down to his getting an ounce of luck.”
Dux says in all likelihood he will drive Captain Nemo similarly to last week when he looped the field to sit parked at the bell and proved too tough.
He drew the outside of the second row last week and has two the second line on Friday.
“I’ll follow them through and play it by ear but if they back off (the tempo) I’ll slip around.
“I think he’s hard to beat. He’s done really well this week.”
Captain Nemo is the second highest rated horse in the field, which is pretty much devoid of recent form, and is set to start a warm favourite.
Uphill task for Tommy
Tommy Lincoln, on the other hand, has an uphill task in the sixth race on Saturday night even though he has only five rivals.
“I thought I was being smart putting him in this race. We had two options and I picked this one because it was a random draw over a mile.
“The other race, over 2138 metres, was drawn on dollars won in their last three starts so he would have got six or seven or the second row.”
The luck of the draw went against Tommy, however, and from four Dux says it doesn’t read well for top junior driver Angus Garrard.
“It’s definitely a bad draw for him as he’ll be the one that has to do all the work. The two outside him (Lilac Flash and Northview Hustler) will go back and the three inside him all have gate speed.”
Dux sees hot pot Turn It Up crossing to the top from three and pole runner Fame Assured being keen to hold the trail.
That would leave Tommy Lincoln parked with Make Mine Memphis, a stablemate of Turn It Up, the likely one-one sitter.
“I can see them coming out of the gate for a hundred metres but that’s all they might do so it’s not ideal.
“If I go back four fence and they walk he’s no hope so I’m probably better to come out steady, sit in the chair, and hope he has some punch left at the finish. But the leader will be the one to beat.”
Tommy Lincoln, markers, is a close-up fifth last week behind Jeradas Delight, Make Mine Memphis, Northview Hustler and Speech Is Silver, wide out.Dux says Tommy Lincoln was unlucky not to have earned a bigger cheque last week when fifth to Jeradas Delight.
“I came out between the 400 and 300 but probably should have done it sooner. I thought the leader had started to get going so coming wide on a quick sectional would have made it hard.
“And when I did ease him out, his back leg touched a wheel and he put in a funny step.”
As it was Tommy closed in 55.22 and 27.5, exactly the same sectionals as the winner who enjoyed the perfect trail.
“I’m sure if he’d drawn inside them on Saturday he could have beaten them. He’s going as good as anything in the race.
“So much depends on draws here. So many races are won by the leader, the one behind the leader and outside the leader, and sometimes three back.
“With the sectional times they run you can’t come around them, mathematically you can’t do it. It’s not that your horse isn’t good enough. You often see a horse runs second last and it’s run the fastest sectionals in the race.”
Captain Nemo races at 8.48pm NZ time at Albion Park on Friday night.
Tommy Lincoln races at 11.41pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
