Nemo’s draw gives him better chance than Tommy tonight but both racing well
By Barry Lichter • 7 January 2023
Captain Nemo and Tommy Lincoln are both coming off excellent last-start placings but barrier draws look set to dictate their chances in the opening two races at Albion Park tonight.
Captain Nemo has fared best, drawn two in the second race from where trainer Mark Dux says the horse should easily secure the parked position.
But Tommy Lincoln will need more luck in the opener, from an awkward six gate, meaning he might have to be driven outside his comfort zone.
Dux was really taken by Captain Nemo’s brave second last start and thinks he’s a top four chance tonight at worst.
After coming round to sit parked outside the hotpot Targaryen just after the bell, Nemo looked to be toast on the home turn but fought back and came up just half a head short.
“In one more hop we would have won the race,” Dux said.
“We’re right up with them on Saturday and if things go his way he could quite easily win.”
Dux said the most likely scenario was that driver Angus Garrard would roll out alongside pole runner Lyrical Genius and sit there quietly.
“I think the one horse has enough speed to hold, if it wants to, and I don’t want us to get into speed battle unless one comes up three deep.”
In those circumstances Dux can see Lyrical Genius relenting and allowing Nemo to cross to the front. “Sumomentsomewhere looks the hardest to beat and if they got going early (from the second row) we wouldn’t let it cross.”
Of the rest, Dux said Bonnie Prince Louis “was really good the other night, doing a heap of work out of the gate and battling well,” and Lyrical Genius and the horse on his back Oaxacan Dream should get cushy runs.
Tommy Lincoln, markers, finishes a close-up third to Turn It Up and Uncle Shank last start.Tommy Lincoln isn’t likely to get such a good trip from wide on the gate in the opening race.
“It’s a shame he didn’t draw better because it’s a very winnable race.”
Dux really liked the way Tommy dug in after trailing last start, finishing only a neck and 2.6 metres third behind Turn It Up and Uncle Shank, in a 1:51.8 mile rate for 1660 metres.
“He’s probably going better now than six months ago but the times they’re running are ridiculously fast. That’s how competitive this class is.
“I don’t know what to do at the start on Saturday. If you drag him back to the tail it’s so much harder to get into the race. We’ll probably roll forward, let him relax, then Mathew (Neilson) can play it by ear.”
Dux doubts Tommy can cross the horse drawn immediately inside him, Rock Bottom, who has a lot of gate speed.
“We’ll probably roll forward and across with no urgency. As long as he doesn’t over-race. I’m not worried about him sitting outside the leader. He has sat there before and raced really well.
“But if he starts pulling, we’ll be in trouble.”
Ideally, Tommy could sit pat over the longer 2138 metres, let the leader go steadily, then have more firepower at the finish.
“I think he’s a better short course horse but he rarely runs a bad one. If he didn’t pull that little bit, he’d be a really nice horse.
“He’s still a good chance on Saturday - it will just come down to what kind of run he gets.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 8.16pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Captain Nemo races at 8.44pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
