Captain Nemo will be very hard to beat if he can lead at Redcliffe tonight. PHOTO: Dan Costello.
Nemo looks a winner but Tommy will have to settle for a place on tight Redcliffe circuit
By Barry Lichter • 12 March 2022
The draws at Redcliffe tonight point to Captain Nemo as a winning chance and Tommy Lincoln as no better than a place chance.
That’s the advice of trainer Mark Dux who takes Lincoln Farms’ pair to the tight 833 metre circuit with Albion Park still out of action.
Dux says it looks like repair work at the No. 1 Brisbane track will take another two or three weeks after the recent bad flooding.
“But we can’t sit at home doing nothing until then and while Redcliffe won’t really suit them - they can both hang a little - I’m not too worried.”
Dux says he plans to drive Captain Nemo a little harder out of the gate in tonight’s sixth race at 11.10pm NZ time, with the intention of leading from the pole.
“The 2040 metre start is good at Redcliffe from the inside and, if he leads, something would have to go wrong for him to be beaten.
“There are a couple outside him with a bit of speed but he’s better than them. He’s been racing better horses at Albion Park.”
Captain Nemo goes into tonight’s race fitter for his fresh-up run at Albion Park on February 2 when he fought hard after being parked outside the hot pot Juddy Douglas in a 1:55.4 mile rate.
Tommy Lincoln is lining up in the opener at 8.29pm NZ time for the first time in nearly five months after his resumption was delayed by a virus.
But, while Dux is very happy with how the horse is training, he says his second row barrier draw effectively sinks his winning chance.
“The favourite (former Southlander) Deus Ex should lead on his ear from three and, if he does, we won’t beat him. He’ll get no pressure and run a big half and you can’t get around them on the Redcliffe track.
“I’ll tell Angus (Garrard) to drive him for a place - drive him cold and let him run home. You can’t think that he can win unless things go pear shaped for the favourite.
“But I’ll be pleased if he can finish in the top three.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 8.29pm at Redcliffe on Saturday night.
Captain Nemo races at 11.10pm at Redcliffe on Saturday night.
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Our runners this week
Friday night at Cambridge
Lincoln Lover, Prince Lincoln, Debbie Lincoln, Lincoln Lou, Sugar Ray Lincoln.
Our runners this week: How our trainer rates them
Nathan’s comments
Tuesday twilight at Manawatu
Race 4: Leo Lincoln
5.44pm
“Fergie’s drive on Sunday was perfect, you couldn’t ask for better, and he said the horse was doing his best work in the last 50 metres. Maybe with another 100 metres he might have got there. His gate speed is only OK so I can see him getting crossed here.”
Race 5: Kevin Kline
6.19pm
“Fergie said he did it easily on the first day, and the horse only did what he had to. He’s been racing much nicer horses at Auckland so it was good to get the win, hopefully it will boost his confidence. I’ll leave the tactics up to Fergie but I imagine he’ll probably do the same thing again, loop the field and outstay them.”
Race 6: Onyx Shard
6.54pm
“I was hoping she’d drop down a grade. She’s had some tough trips recently, having to do a lot of work, and it didn’t help being three wide for the last lap on the first day. Also they only walked and sprinted home. She could be better coming with one run at them.”
