Captain Nemo will be very hard to beat if he can lead at Redcliffe tonight. PHOTO: Dan Costello.
Nemo looks a winner but Tommy will have to settle for a place on tight Redcliffe circuit
By Barry Lichter • 12 March 2022
The draws at Redcliffe tonight point to Captain Nemo as a winning chance and Tommy Lincoln as no better than a place chance.
That’s the advice of trainer Mark Dux who takes Lincoln Farms’ pair to the tight 833 metre circuit with Albion Park still out of action.
Dux says it looks like repair work at the No. 1 Brisbane track will take another two or three weeks after the recent bad flooding.
“But we can’t sit at home doing nothing until then and while Redcliffe won’t really suit them - they can both hang a little - I’m not too worried.”
Dux says he plans to drive Captain Nemo a little harder out of the gate in tonight’s sixth race at 11.10pm NZ time, with the intention of leading from the pole.
“The 2040 metre start is good at Redcliffe from the inside and, if he leads, something would have to go wrong for him to be beaten.
“There are a couple outside him with a bit of speed but he’s better than them. He’s been racing better horses at Albion Park.”
Captain Nemo goes into tonight’s race fitter for his fresh-up run at Albion Park on February 2 when he fought hard after being parked outside the hot pot Juddy Douglas in a 1:55.4 mile rate.
Tommy Lincoln is lining up in the opener at 8.29pm NZ time for the first time in nearly five months after his resumption was delayed by a virus.
But, while Dux is very happy with how the horse is training, he says his second row barrier draw effectively sinks his winning chance.
“The favourite (former Southlander) Deus Ex should lead on his ear from three and, if he does, we won’t beat him. He’ll get no pressure and run a big half and you can’t get around them on the Redcliffe track.
“I’ll tell Angus (Garrard) to drive him for a place - drive him cold and let him run home. You can’t think that he can win unless things go pear shaped for the favourite.
“But I’ll be pleased if he can finish in the top three.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 8.29pm at Redcliffe on Saturday night.
Captain Nemo races at 11.10pm at Redcliffe on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
