Tommy Lincoln sat parked all the way to win his fourth race at Albion Park last week.
Mark not fazed by the big guns, Colt Thirty One and all - Tommy just needs a good trip
By Barry Lichter • 13 August 2021
At first glance, Tommy Lincoln looks to have a job on his hands taking on Colt Thirty One and co for the first time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
But trainer Mark Dux believes, given a reasonable trip, Lincoln Farms’ new Queensland flagbearer could run top three in the opening race.
“I’m not worried about taking on Colt Thirty One,” says Dux. “The times Tommy’s running suggest he will handle the step-up.
“But it will all come down to the trip he gets.”
Dux doubts that Tommy Lincoln and new driver Shane Graham will cross to the lead from three on the gate.
“They won’t want to take a trial on Blacksadance (pole). He’s not the sort of horse who likes to get on the fence. He’s galloped before when caught on the inside.”
Maywyn’s Best, from six, also likes to lead and could hum the gate, says Dux.
“There will be a lot of speed and pressure off the gate - it won’t be as slow as last week (when Tommy was able to sit parked and win).”
That’s almost certainly because everyone knows long time state champ Colt Thirty One will be off and around the field to capture the death seat.
That’s why Dux believes Tommy Lincoln could get a good trip if he’s able to retain the early parked position.
“If he does, he’ll race well again. I think he could finish top three with a reasonable run.
“Everything’s been good with the horse this week.”
A taxing trip, when Tommy Lincoln sat parked throughout last Saturday and scored his fourth Albion Park win in a mile rate of 1:53.2, did not appear to have taken any toll on the horse, he said.
Early markets have Tommy Lincoln third favourite at $5 behind Crunch Time ($2.70) and Blacksadance ($3.70) with Colt Thirty One next on $5.50.
Former Lincoln Farms’ hero Northview Hustler, in his second run back from a long break, is the equal $34 outsider, having to start from three on the second row over the sprint trip.
Tommy Lincoln races at 7.43pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
