Mark: My gut feeling is Tommy might need a spell, and it’s Nemo’s toughest test on Friday

Tommy Lincoln’s followers have enjoyed a good run in Brisbane in the last few months but trainer Mark Dux is urging caution when he lines up at Albion Park on Saturday night.

Lincoln Farms’ warrior drops into a very winnable band three and two race, albeit from an inside second row draw, but Dux suspects he might be coming to the end of a hard campaign and in need of a spell.

While Tommy Lincoln was right in the firing line 100 metres from home last Saturday night, the fact he finished only fourth was a red flag for Dux.

“It wasn’t by any stretch a bad run but he wasn’t as strong as he has been.

“I’m not 100% sure either way, I just thought he felt a little bit lacklustre the last 50 metres. I thought he should have held on to third.”

There was only a nose in it at the line, and Tommy was only five metres from winner Speech Is Silver, but Dux says in the back of his mind he suspects he might need a break.

Mark Dux … “Hey, I might be wrong, he might come out and win. But I thought he was a little bit down on what he can do last week.”“Hey, I might be wrong, he might come out and win. But I thought he was a little bit down on what he can do last week.

“He’s been going for the best part of four months and only missed a week here or there. I reckon I’ve missed only once since Ray (Green) went home. And he raced in the Jewels before he came over.”

Between June 22 and October 9 Tommy Lincoln has raced 14 times in Brisbane, including four times in July, four in August, three in September and twice already this month.

His record has been excellent, notching five wins, two seconds, two thirds and two fourths.

“He’s had a lot of hard racing, running fast times, 1:51, 1:52, week after week.

“He’s done well since his last run, so there’s no reason to say he’ll go badly, but this week will tell the tale.”

If anything, Tommy will be slightly freshened, says Dux, as the weather has been so bad since a stormy Monday night that he has not been worked as much.

Top junior Angus Garrard will pilot Tommy on Saturday night and Dux is hoping the pole runner he follows will hold up in the lead. “That would be perfect for us and get him right into the race.”

But while Lombo Heaven is fast out of the gate and has front-running exponent Pete McMullen at the reins, Dux says he’s likely to have a serious challenger early in Franco Hampton.

“Pete McMullen doesn’t often take a sit but Franco Hampton is very fast and they love to light him up.

“That means we could end up three back, but we just have to follow through and see what happens.”

Trainer Mark Dux has driven Captain Nemo to a hat-trick in recent weeks. PHOTO: Dan Costello.Biggest test on Friday night

Stablemate Captain Nemo, who races on Friday night, faces his toughest test in a rating 70 to 85 event. It features several talented former Kiwis, including Robbie Holmes’ Kiwis Are Flying and the All Stars’ Italian Lad, who won a 1660 metre trial in 1:54.9 nine days ago.

“This will be a tough race for him, that’s for sure,” says Dux who has driven the horse to a hat-trick in as many weeks, looping the field to sit parked.

“He’s racing way better horses this time - there are some really nice ones in the field.

“One-on-one I’m sure he’d hold his own but in a field it’s a different ball game. We might have to vary our tactics, let them run along, and have one run at them.

“He’s not brilliant off the gate and there’s speed all around him. We’ll just let him come out and see where he lands. If they go crazy we can wait but if they back off then we can go forward.

“With a bit of luck I’m sure he’ll go another good race.”

Captain Nemo wouldn’t be affected by a slacker week than usual because of the big wet, he says.

“He’s had some hard racing and is very fit.”

Garrard will drive Captain Nemo for the first time.

Captain Nemo races at 8.22pm NZ time at Albion Park on Friday night.Tommy Lincoln races at 10.43pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.