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Captain Nemo is finishing on for fifth after a torrid trip last week.

Mark: Captain Nemo drops in grade and needs only average luck to be right there on Tuesday

A significant drop in grade gives Captain Nemo gets his best chance to return to the winner’s circle at Albion Park on Tuesday.

Trainer Mark Dux says the horse needs only average luck from the outside of the gate to be right there at the finish.

“He’s going well even though the (form) numbers don’t reflect it. I couldn’t tell you the last time anything went his way. We’re overdue for a bit of luck.”

Last week, Captain Nemo was left parked out when eventual winner Hy Voltage went to the lead in an up-to-rating 90 1660 and he did well to finish only 8 metres away in fifth place.

Driver Grant Dixon told Dux the horse had to do all the donkey work and would have earned a good cheque with any sort of luck.

Given Nemo’s two previous runs were from the second row in even stronger band 5 races, he will enjoy the step back to the up-to-rating 70 grade.

As the highest rated horse in the field on R70, he gets the worst alley, with main danger Midnight Calm (R67) immediately inside him.

“Midnight Calm will more than likely be the leader. We just have to hope that a couple inside him like Luvbite and Offyarocka Crocker come out under him early and make him run a bit. If he finds the lead easily and gets his own way he’ll run 1:52 and we won’t beat him.

“We’ll let them go crazy, go across behind them and come with one run. It would be stupid to go forward. We’d get parked for sure and you don’t want to be there when they running 1:52.”

Midnight Calm, a 15-race winner, has shown repeatedly he is capable of running that fast. Three starts back he ran a 2.8 metre second to Aroda, who clocked 1:52. Five starts back he was beaten half a head in 1:52.9, from the same gate six he has on Tuesday. And in August he won in 1:52.4.

After four second row draws, he returns to the front row this week.

“But I’m very happy with Nemo. He’s done well and I’m just hoping for a bit of luck.”

Captain Nemo races at 6.47pm NZ time at Albion Park on Tuesday.Captain Nemo races at 6.47pm NZ time at Albion Park on Tuesday.

Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Friday night at Auckland

Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm

“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”

Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm

“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”

Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm

“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”

Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm

“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”

Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm

“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”

Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm

“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”

Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm

“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”

Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm

“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”

Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm

“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”

Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm

“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”

Mark Dux

Mark Dux’s comments

Saturday night at Albion Park

Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time

“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Sunday at Manawatu

Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm

“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”

Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm

“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.

Whales Harness