Mark: Captain Nemo drops in grade and needs only average luck to be right there on Tuesday

A significant drop in grade gives Captain Nemo gets his best chance to return to the winner’s circle at Albion Park on Tuesday.

Trainer Mark Dux says the horse needs only average luck from the outside of the gate to be right there at the finish.

“He’s going well even though the (form) numbers don’t reflect it. I couldn’t tell you the last time anything went his way. We’re overdue for a bit of luck.”

Last week, Captain Nemo was left parked out when eventual winner Hy Voltage went to the lead in an up-to-rating 90 1660 and he did well to finish only 8 metres away in fifth place.

Driver Grant Dixon told Dux the horse had to do all the donkey work and would have earned a good cheque with any sort of luck.

Given Nemo’s two previous runs were from the second row in even stronger band 5 races, he will enjoy the step back to the up-to-rating 70 grade.

As the highest rated horse in the field on R70, he gets the worst alley, with main danger Midnight Calm (R67) immediately inside him.

“Midnight Calm will more than likely be the leader. We just have to hope that a couple inside him like Luvbite and Offyarocka Crocker come out under him early and make him run a bit. If he finds the lead easily and gets his own way he’ll run 1:52 and we won’t beat him.

“We’ll let them go crazy, go across behind them and come with one run. It would be stupid to go forward. We’d get parked for sure and you don’t want to be there when they running 1:52.”

Midnight Calm, a 15-race winner, has shown repeatedly he is capable of running that fast. Three starts back he ran a 2.8 metre second to Aroda, who clocked 1:52. Five starts back he was beaten half a head in 1:52.9, from the same gate six he has on Tuesday. And in August he won in 1:52.4.

After four second row draws, he returns to the front row this week.

“But I’m very happy with Nemo. He’s done well and I’m just hoping for a bit of luck.”

Captain Nemo races at 6.47pm NZ time at Albion Park on Tuesday.