Lincoln’s Girl has been competing in fast-run races against much stronger opposition. PHOTO: Trish Dunell.
Lincoln’s Girl will find the slower Manawatu tempo a walk in the park
By Barry Lichter • 19 November 2018
A big drop in class and the inside barrier makes Lincoln’s Girl the one to beat in the sixth race at Manawatu on Tuesday night.
Lincoln’s Girl’s form looks less than flattering but she won’t have to go anywhere near the same speed as in her last two starts when seventh.
At Cambridge last time, she had no chance when shuffled to four deep on the markers with winner Patanjali on the front end clocking a slick 2.41.5 for the 2200 metres, a mile rate of 1:58.1.
And before that at Auckland, Lincoln’s Girl had no chance when she galloped out of the gate and settled a clear last, with classy winner On The Cards running a mile rate of 1:58.8 over 2700 metres.
That race was an up to rating 74 event and on Tuesday night Lincoln’s Girl lands in a rating 53-56 race over the much more suitable trip of only 2000 metres.
When main race rival Stoppitt won on the first night of the last Manawatu meeting he clocked a mile rate of 2:03 for 2000 metres, a clip that Lincoln’s Girl would find a walk in the park.
“On paper you’d have to be disappointed if she didn’t get some of it,’’ says trainer Ray Green. “The drop in class will help her immensely.’’
It will be up to driver Zachary Butcher to get the filly to race kindly, he says, but over a short trip round the tight 900 metre track, which will suit her, she deserved to be favourite.
Vinibaka … on first road trip to Manawatu and meets poor opposition.Stablemate Vinibaka, also banished to Manawatu after some indifferent form, is well placed to pay his travelling expenses in the eighth race.
From two on the gate, with Vinibaka’s excellent gate speed, Butcher should have no trouble crossing over to the lead.
And being easily the highest ranked horse on a rating 46, in a field devoid of form, he will be hard to peg back, again over only 2000 metres.
Vinibaka had no chance to use his gate speed last time at Cambridge when, after drawing the inside of the second row, driver David Butcher was shuffled to four deep on the markers.
“David said he felt good ’til they sprinted at the 600 then he flattened out and when he showed him daylight in the straight he couldn’t go on.’’
In Vinibaka’s defence, he was bottled up in traffic until the last 100 metres when the race was all over.
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Little Missy Lincoln can stand up for herself in Young Guns fillies’ heat on Friday night
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Nathan’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 1: The Night Fox
5.44pm
“From a good front line draw Harry can run off the gate and find the front. He’s shown he’s got the speed to get there. And if he can go 2:42 again, or quicker, I thought he’d be a very good winning chance. It’s an easier field than the one he beat last time. He’s trained well this week.”
Race 2: Rivergirl Bella
6.09pm
“She goes down to Cambridge for the first time so it’s a big drop in class. She also goes a lot better left-handed so I thought from the good draw she could run top three.”
Race 3: Lincoln Maree
6.34pm
“She paced a 1:56.7 mile in beating the amateurs last start but it looks like she’ll need a bit of luck from the draw this time. The two inside her like to lead so she could end up three fence or outside them. I’ll leave it up to Harry to get the right trip.”
Race 3: Lincoln Lover
6.34pm
“He’s a place chance. He likes bowling along but from five it’s hard to say where he’ll end up. He’s very consistent and he paced 2:42.3 last time so I can absolutely see him in the money.”
Race 6: Lincoln Linda
8.04pm
“She was in a very strong R40 to R48 race last time at Auckland against horses like Alecto, All Of Me and Cyclone Rebel, and she clocked 2:41.1, so back to Cambridge where she won her first race, and a much easier R38 to R40 field, she’s got to be a good winning chance. She’s best in front if Fergie can get there.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Leo Lincoln
4.42pm
“I’m not holding my breath with him. We won’t count that last run, when the leader went ballistic and he couldn’t get into the race, but he’s not well placed here.”
Race 4: Spiritual Bliss
6.09pm
“She’s racing really well and this looks a bit easier than last time when she was trapped in the breeze in a strong field. I can’t see how she won’t be right in the fight.”
Race 7: Missy Lincoln
7.34pm
“I didn’t know what to expect on debut but she was very brave. I’m picking she’ll go well again but she’ll need a bit of luck - drawn the second line we’re at the mercy of others. We’ll poke her out and see. At least she won’t get parked this time.”
Race 10: Lincoln Wave
9.07pm
“We’re racing the best horses now but he’ll definitely go better than last time. Tony (Herlihy) said he felt super across the top but once in the straight he flattened out, which I half expected. I had him scoped afterwards just to make sure he was all right but he was short of a run, that’s all.”
Race 10: Johnny Lincoln
9.07pm
“He went super when third last week and Fergie said just wait ’til he gets over 2700 metres, he’ll be a monster. He’s turned into a proper racehorse. From four there’ll be a bit of urgency early and hopefully he can get a suck along and get some of it.”
