Tommy Lincoln needed only a few more metres last week to catch winner Love Your Work.
If Tommy can relax again he only needs his rivals to go silly early to pounce on them late
By Barry Lichter • 6 October 2022
Trainer Mark Dux is hoping for more of the same when Tommy Lincoln lines up at Albion Park on Saturday night after a new bit saw him settle beautifully last week.
Instead of over-racing and tiring late as he has been prone to doing, Tommy Lincoln relaxed and roared home late to all but catch the winner Love Your Work, courtesy of a quiet drive and a “happy bit”.
This week he has only five rivals but he will have to be on his best behaviour again, stepping up to 2138 metres, with Cruz Bromac, Turn It Up and Will The Wizard all capable of winning.
“We’ll drive him cold again, camp in behind them and do nothing, and hopefully he’ll hit the line again.
“I was really happy with him last week - he came home in 54.15 and 26.76 (faster than the winner) - and he only needed a few more hops to run it down.”
Dux praised the work of new driver Mathew Neilson.
“Mathew has good hands when they get a bit keen. I told him not to fight the horse, just put him on a helmet, and he went as good as you could want. They went only 58.3 for the first half and he still settled well.
“If he continues down that path, with a bit of luck, he can win more races. He’s been over-racing and you can’t do that, be fighting your horse, and think you’ll have any punch at the finish.
“I don’t think he can make his own luck with the times they’re running. Coming through the grades was a different ball game but look at the ridiculous fractions they’re running now.”
Dux says Tommy’s chances on Saturday night will hinge on how his rivals are driven.
“We have to hope they go a bit silly early. The slower they go, the harder it will be for us because if they jog along you know the sectionals they’ll run home in.”
The key to the race, he says, will be how desperate Will The Wizard’s driver Pete McMullen is to hold his pole spot out of the gate.
“I don’t know if he has enough speed to hold Cruz Bromac and Turn It Up but I’m sure he’ll be trying.
“I don’t think there’s anything in Australia that could cross Turn It Up if he was drawn the inside so it will be interesting to see if they light him up from the outside.”
McMullen will be conscious of the fact that if he hands up first to Cruz Bromac, he might end up three deep and lose his winning chance, if Turn It Up then takes over.
“If Will is ever going to hold, though, it will be at the 2138 start - it’s such a good run up the straight. The inside horses don’t lose ground.
“If there’s any chink in their armour, or if they go too hard, Tommy will be strong at the finish. He’s going well.
“Tommy’s in the top four but it will come down to what the others do and how hard they work.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 12.40pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
