Leo Lincoln paces 2:40 flat at Cambridge in March. PHOTO: Angelique Bridson.
Genuine little Leo Lincoln hard to stop in weaker company at Cambridge on Friday night
By Barry Lichter • 29 May 2024
It’s not hard to peg Leo Lincoln as the best chance of Lincoln Farms’ five runners at Cambridge on Friday night.
The genuine little three-year-old is rarely out of the money and, after two slightly unlucky runs at Auckland, drops back in company and returns to the scene of his two most recent wins.
“He looks our best shot all right,” says trainer Ray Green.
“He always goes well, draws don’t seem to matter to him, and he came from last at Auckland last week.”
Drawing the pole in his last two starts hasn’t been all peaches and cream for Leo, who has been held up early in the home straight before being able to lodge his claim in far stronger fields.
Two starts back he was best of the rest behind Escape Artist, Iron Brigade and Hugotastic, beating home the well fancied Better Knuckle Up and Aye Aye Captain.
And last week only those last two finished ahead of him when he was again held up before unleashing the fastest last quarter in the race, 27 flat, clocking 2:41.6 overall for the 2200 metres.
From five on the gate on Friday, Green believes Leo is good enough to make his own luck. In March he came from barrier six to score at Cambridge, clocking 2:40 flat.
Green believes Leo Lincoln and stablemate My Copy are clearly the two to beat in the race, both winners on the course in their last visits.
“Leo has a bit more speed than My Copy but I’m happy with both of them.”
My Copy finished fourth, just a head behind Leo Lincoln last week, after showing surprisingly good gate speed to trail.
“Maurice (McKendry) hadn’t asked him to leave for a while and he showed a bit of lick. He likes Cambridge and is racing very well.”
Obadiah Dragon … pushed four wide when mounting a run last week at Auckland. PHOTO: Jack McKenzie.One race earlier, Green lines up Lincoln Cove, Commander Lincoln and Obadiah Dragon, and rates the latter best.
“Obadiah Dragon will need luck from seven but if I had to bet on one of those three, he’d be it.”
Green says you can put the line through his last start at Auckland when he quietly fancied the horse at outsized odds.
“The way the race panned out it was a non-event for a lot of them. They walked and sprinted home and those back in the field had no chance.”
Obadiah Dragon, pushed four wide 600 metres out when starting his run, was never a chance.
“The driver (Andre Poutama) thought he got home well for fifth so we’ll just forget the run.”
Green says he won’t be holding his breath over Lincoln Cove and Commander Lincoln but you couldn’t rule them out.
“Lincoln Cove is capable but not very reliable. The two draw gives him his chance. He should get out of the gate well and be handy to the pace.”
The Downbytheseaside three-year-old paced roughly in the run home at Alexandra Park last week and, while he has proven unpredictable at Cambridge, seemed to be more comfortable left-handed.
“Commander Lincoln is feeling good at the moment and could surprise us all. Six is a niggly draw, and this field is harder than the amateur company he has been placing in, but none of them are superstars.”
More news in Harness
‘The Kid’ flying but Argyle up against it to add good points in novel drivers’ challenge
Street’s emotion-charged night in the winners’ room - sad loss before a record four wins
It’s green jackets all the way and Ray fancies improving surprise packet Prince Lincoln
The Lincoln Wave secret is well and truly out now, but who was that mystery underbidder?
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
