Argyle (Angus Garrard) scores in style at Albion Park two starts back. PHOTO: Dan Costello.
Frustrated Mark on those draws: Too tough for Nemo and Argyle’s likely to have to sit parked
By Barry Lichter • 19 October 2023
The barrier draws look set to dictate the fortunes of Lincoln Farms’ pair Captain Nemo and Argyle at Albion Park on Saturday night.
The luckless Captain Nemo is virtually out for the count after drawing five on the second row in the opening race and Argyle, while tidily spotted in two in the second race, will probably have to sit parked in the second race outside leader and likely winner Awaywego.
Trainer Mark Dux cursed when Nemo drew 12 on Saturday night, just eight days after he lost all chance when his wheel was struck 1400 metres out and his trye punctured and wrapped round the rim, forcing driver Jordan Topping to retire him from the race.
“I think he would nearly have won last week but it’s not looking good from 12 this week.”
Dux says the opposition in the band 5 race would have been hard enough without faring so badly in the random draw.
“If it had been only a mile with three on the second row maybe he’d have had a chance but it’s going to be really tough for him now.
“It’s so frustrating. He’s going well and looks terrific but now he’s totally reliant on what sort of a run he gets.”
At first glance, Argyle, as the equal top-rater in the second race, looks a royal winning show but Dux, who knows the racing patterns of the opposition so well, can see exactly what will happen.
“Pete McMullen will lead on the one horse (Awaywego) without doubt and it looks like we’ll have to sit parked. He’s strong enough to do it but can we sit outside him and beat him? Probably not on their runs last time.”
Twelve days ago when Awaywego came out fast and sat parked outside the leader Luvbite, Argyle enjoyed a perfect one-out-one-back trail yet photo-finished Awaywego only a nose.
“Awaywego has the most gate speed in the race and because he’s the leader, he’s the one to beat. If he had drawn anywhere else I’d have had no hesitation in saying we could beat him.”
Dux can’t see much gate speed wider on the front line, barring Daniel Boom.
“They like to go forward on him and, if he did, we might be lucky enough to get the one-one. But he knows at best he’s going to be outside the leader.
“Everything is in favour of Awaywego. Coming back to the mile will suit him too.”
Tommy close
Dux is pleased with the progress of his third Lincoln Farms’ charge Tommy Lincoln, who hasn’t raced for six months.
“He’s coming along well and I’ll trial him in two to three weeks.”
Dux is hoping to sneak Tommy Lincoln into the Ladbrokes Interdominion series which starts at Albion Park in 42 days on December 1. But he’ll have to raise his current ranking of 48th to make the 36-horse cut.
“He won’t have time for a lot of racing before the series comes around. I’ll have to give him a couple of trials. We can’t go in underdone, thinking we can keep up with them.”
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
