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Tommy Lincoln (white saddlecloth) powers home for a close fourth last start.

Forget the form line, our brave Tommy’s running sensational sectionals in Brisbane

Don’t make the mistake of thinking Tommy Lincoln isn’t racing well in Queensland.

He might have won only one race there in the last 12 months but week-in-and-week-out he’s running times comparable to his free-for-all rivals.

His run for fourth two weeks ago at Albion Park was typical of his last 10 starts, says trainer Mark Dux, who estimates he’s been averaging a mile rate of 1:53.

Three back on the markers, Tommy Lincoln came with a strong burst when clear, clocking 54.29 for his last 800 and 26.19 for his final 400. His splits were faster than winner Bigger Wheels, who rated 1:52.6, and only third-placed Will The Wizard ran fractionally faster over the final 400.

“He’s actually going really well without winning,” says Dux. “His sectionals are sensational. They stack up with any of them.”

With the times so fast, Dux says it all comes down to barrier draws and where you end up in the running.

“I thought they’d go hard down the back last time but after she (Chantal Turpin) went down the back in only 28.1 and home in 26.3 we had no chance of running her down.”

So, how does Tommy’s race stack up on Saturday night?

Drawn four in the six-horse field, Tommy won’t be leading, with fast beginner and former Lincoln Farms’ war horse Northview Hustler drawn immediately inside him.

“If Alistair’s (Barnes) horse wants to hold them he can - he was only just run down the other night (by Mach Da Vinci over 2138m).”

Dux says the outside two horses, Big Wheels and Uncle Shank, will surely go forward.

If pressured, Hustler’s trainer-driver Brendan Barnes will then be faced with the decision on whether to hand up the lead, the danger for him being if he relents to one, the stablemate will likely then take over, putting him three back.

“We might be able to slot across without doing too much work and be handy in the running line.

“I’m really happy with him and I see no reason why he won’t race well again.”

In 17 months since arriving in Queensland, Tommy Lincoln has won six races and banked A$83,884 for Lincoln Farms owners John and Lynne Street and their partners Shannon and Brenda Flay, Ian, Kathy and Daniel Parkinson, Debbie Sparks, Ray Menzies, Denis Ebert and Ian Middleton.

Tommy Lincoln races at 1.12am NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.Tommy Lincoln races at 1.12am NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.

Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Friday night at Auckland

Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm

“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”

Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm

“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”

Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm

“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”

Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm

“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”

Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm

“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”

Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm

“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”

Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm

“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”

Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm

“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”

Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm

“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”

Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm

“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”

Mark Dux

Mark Dux’s comments

Saturday night at Albion Park

Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time

“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”

Ray Green

Ray’s comments

Sunday at Manawatu

Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm

“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”

Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm

“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.

Whales Harness