Forget the form line, Captain Nemo can run top three tonight with an ounce of luck
His form line of 0006 might look bleak but trainer Mark Dux points to other numbers that give a better guide to Captain Nemo’s chances at Albion Park this evening.
It’s the sectionals the horse ran at his last start that Dux says make Captain Nemo a top three chance at lucrative odds in the last race.
On a rain-sodden track, Nemo finished on strongly to be only 8.4 metres from winner Art Jester, despite being forced to make his three wide run earlier than driver Angus Garrard wanted when a rival stopped in his face.
The horse clocked closing sectionals of 28.91 and 27.46, covering an extra 32 metres in the run, each quarter only one hundredth of a second slower than the winner.
Nemo was also clocked to run the fastest middle half in 59.2.
Drawn three on the second row, Dux knows Nemo will need the right tempo up front to get into the race.
“If they go stupid early, and we can get a nice tag into it, we won’t be far off. Parama, who has drawn inside us, might get going and take us into the race.
“We have to drive him quietly, we can’t be trying to make things happen every week or we’ll stuff him.
“We need him to pull up sound, come home in one piece and then he’ll be a chance again next week.”
Dux says Western Arterra, drawn two, is the obvious favourite after his strong-finishing recent efforts. But Nemo, the third highest rated horse in the race, needs only an ounce of luck to get some of the money.
“He’s trained on well and I have nothing to complain about.”
More news in Harness
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Ray: Preferential draw for top fillies makes it tough for everyone else in Golden Gait series
Patient owners hoping high-priced Colonel can salute at Cambridge on Thursday night
Friday’s Lincoln Farms Franklin Cup all about the standing start manners of Aussie raider
Our runners this week
Tuesday at Cambridge
Colonel Lincoln, Onyx Shard, Commander Lincoln, Debbie Lincoln, Kevin Kline, Lincoln La Moose, The Big Lebowski.
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 2: Commander Lincoln
5.51pm
“Back to Cambridge and the easier amateur ranks he can get some of it. He’s an honest little horse who pays his way.”
Race 4: Onyx Shard
6.49pm
“She’s a nice filly who is training really well and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her in the money in spite of the outside draw. She’d be one of the best in that field and is definitely an each-way chance.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.39pm
“He hasn’t raced for nearly 21 months but his training has been good and he should go well first-up. He’s a beautiful, big horse who probably lacks a yard of speed to be a real super horse but he’s got everything else. I expect him to go well against this lot.”
Race 7: Lincoln La Moose
8.04pm
“He’s training well and has surprised us before, like when he won his first start at Cambridge like a monster after breaking on the first turn. It’s always the way when they win their first start - it makes things hard for them after that - but he’s travelling well now and is capable of being in it.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 4: Lincoln Lou
7.09pm
“He’ll be relying on a heap of good luck from the second row. His last run was a non-event. The poor little bugger couldn’t have done a better job of finding trouble. He’s trained on all right.”
Race 4: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.09pm
“He’s training really well and he showed last time what a big motor he had, losing all that ground early and still getting up to win. He’s not famous for his gate speed but as long as he gets away safely then Maurice can put him in the race at the right time. There are a lot of horses in there that aren’t that safe who could stand on their ear. Navigating through them is always a worry. He’ll need some luck but he could give them a fright.”
Race 6: Frisco Bay
8.05pm
“He obviously can’t beat Duchess Megxit or Jeremiah but if he gets a good trip he’s a chance of getting some money. Things didn’t suit him last time - being out three wide then going to the front. He’s so hot, he over-races. He goes best if he’s allowed to slop out and find the back of something, when he generally relaxes. Even if he got back a bit, that would be all right, so long as he gets sucked along.”