Forecasted deluge brings Lincoln Fury right into the reckoning at Otaki on Wednesday

Don’t let the fact that Lincoln Fury ran last at his last start put you off backing him at Otaki on Wednesday.

A number of factors played against Lincoln Farms’ four-year-old when he raced at Wairarapa on January 2:

• The ground was much too hard - a good 3
• He was well out of his grade, in a rating 82 event compared with the rating 65 he won at his previous start
• He was second-up, backing up quickly, just 13 days after his resuming run
• And he was running over a middle distance for the first time.

On Wednesday Lincoln Fury looks like getting his favoured slow going, he is back to rating 65, he’s been freshened right up, and is back to 1600 meres.

Lincoln Fury got those conditions in his previous start, also at Otaki, when he flew home for trainer Lisa Latta to score decisively on December 20.

The going was a slow 9 that day and with the track a dead 5 this morning and a whopping 39ml of rain forecast to fall on race morning, it should enter the slow range.

Jonathan Riddell … takes over on Lincoln Fury.Both Lincoln Fury’s wins have been in slow footing, at Otaki and Trentham (slow 7), and he also has a photo-finish second at Otaki on his CV in slow 8 going.

“The ground was just too hard for him last time,” says Latta. “And I did back him up quite quickly.”

Lincoln Fury might have run last of seven at Wairarapa but it’s not as if he raced badly. Rider Robbie Hannam landed a beautiful trail and was in the call and poking up inside the two leaders halfway down the straight, before weakening over the 2050 metres.

Lincoln Fury will carry Jonathan Riddell and top weight of 59kg on Wednesday, being back to a rating 65 event. “But he can carry that, he’s a strong horse,” says Latta.

Lincoln Fury carried 58kg when he won his first race and is up only 2kg on the weight he had when scoring two starts back at Otaki.

Latta and Hannam have always rated the All Too Hard gelding an up-and-comer, believing he was a derby candidate early in his three-year-old season.

“He’s definitely a winning chance if that rain comes.”

Lincoln Fury opened the equal third fixed odds favourite this afternoon at $8.50 and $2.90.

Lincoln Fury’s biggest danger could be the Royden Bergerson-trained Rukita ($4.80) whom Hannam sticks with. The promising filly has come with big finishes at Otaki in three of her last four starts.

Lincoln Lane … still big and immature. PHOTO: Royden Williams.Lincoln Lane ($21) steps over ground for the first time in the second race, just what Latta has always maintained the Savabeel gelding needs, but she is wary about recommending him at his first attempt.

“He’s had two runs over a mile to fit him but sometimes they need a couple of runs over ground before they reach their peak.

“The 2200 metres is a bit of a worry. He hasn’t been strong enough and is still a big, immature horse.

“His two runs back have been OK, his work has been good, and he will get better and better. Next season we should see the best of him but he should show us something this prep.”

Latta says the predicted rain would only help Lincoln Lane.

“A bit of rain won’t worry Authentic Charm ($8.50, race four) either.

“She’s become a bit of a head scratcher but putting the hood on her has definitely sharpened her up.

“Robbie thinks she’s going to get over a mile and 2000 metres because she keeps going at one speed and doesn’t really quicken.

“But in a small field she’s a place chance. She continues to work well and from a good barrier hopefully we can get a nice run just in behind the speed.”