Favourites rule at the Jewels - what all the stats tell us about who to punt at Cambridge

So you’re planning on taking a few multis on Sunday’s Harness Jewels at Cambridge. BARRY LICHTER has done the hard yards for you, analysing all 13 years the event has been running, and discovering some crucial patterns with the favourites.

When GTH Aveross upset at $81.70 in the inaugural Harness Jewels race at Ashburton in 2007 she buried the hopes of thousands of multi punters.

And when the late Colin Butler’s trotting warhorse Charlemagne won the first of his two Jewels at Cambridge in 2012, he was the rank outsider, paying $90.70.

Lincoln Farms has featured in a couple of rough results too, producing Beaudiene Boaz to win the Two-year-old Emerald at Cambridge in 2014 at $38.90 and Sir Lincoln ($18) to win the Three-Year-Old Emerald with an exceptional performance from a bad draw in 2010.

But if you look at the overall picture, if you like punting longshots, the Harness Jewels isn’t for you.

In the 120 Jewels races run since 2007 only 22 (18.3%) of the winners have not been in the first three favourites.

Favourites have won 70 races, second favourites 20 races and third favourites eight races.

In total 98 out of 120 winners (81.6%) have been in the first three favourites and 90 out of 120 winners (75%) have been in first two favourites.

There has been only one upset in 27 races run at the last three Cambridge Jewels meetings.Cambridge even more skewed

The stats for Cambridge alone, where six Jewels meetings have been run, are even more skewed against roughies.

Only eight of the 54 races, or 14.8%, have been won by horses outside the first three favourites.

And in the last three runnings at Cambridge, there’s been only one upset in 27 races.

* In 2018, the nine races were won by six win favourites and three second favourites.

* In 2016 all nine winners were in the first three favourites.

* In 2014 only one winner wasn’t in the first three favourites.

A whopping 77.7% of winners, that’s 42 of 54 races run at Cambridge, have been top two favourites with 30 win favourites and 12 second favourites.

Favourites clean up

Given it’s near the end of the season and the form is well exposed, it’s not surprising favourites do well and the Harness Jewels has been a happy hunting ground for multi punters for many years. (Check out how punting at the Jewels changed one punter’s life in 2008 at Cambridge).

The most top elects to win was at Ashburton in 2011 with the win favourite taking eight of the nine races. Pure Power could run only fifth in the other race won by Franco Emirate (4/3).

The record over the years has seen seven favourites win once, six favourites win four times, five favourites win once and four favourites win six times.

Favouritisms of winners over the years

2019: 1/1, 7/7, 1/1, 1/1, 2/2, 2/2, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1 Addington

2018: 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/2, 2/1, 2/2, 1/1, 1/1, 2/1 Cambridge

2017: 2/3, 6/6, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 7/4, 1/2, 3/2, 8/9 Ashburton

2016: 2/2, 2/2, 2/2, 1/1, 3/2, 1/1, 3/3, 1/1, 1/1 Cambridge

2015: 1/1, 3/3, 1/1, 4/4, 1/1, 1/2, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1 Ashburton

2014: 1/1, 2/2, 2/2, 1/1, 2/2, 3/3, 1/2, 7/7, 1/1 Cambridge

2013: 1/2, 2/3, 1/1, 4/4, 1/1, 5/5, 1/1, 5/5, 1/2 Ashburton

Plus 3 5yo races. 1/1, 1/1, 5/5

2012: 7/7, 2/2, 1/2, 5/5, 1/1, 12/12, 1/1, 1/1, 2/2 Cambridge

2011: 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/2, 4/3 Ashburton

2010: 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 5/5, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/2, 4/3 Cambridge

2009: 1/1, 7/7, 4/4, 2/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 2/2, 2/1 Ashburton

2008: 1/1, 8/8*, 5/4, 2/3, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 1/1, 3/3 Cambridge

2007: 11/11, 1/1, 3/3, 2/1, 1/1, 3/1, 4/4, 1/1, 1/1 Ashburton

* Muscle And Power won as favourite but was later disqualified for returning a positive test to DMSO and the race awarded to Merckx (8/8)

Four-Year-Old Emerald the most reliable

So do the stats reveal which races punters can rely on the most?

Below are the favouritisms of every winner in each category in the 13 years the Jewels has been run, from 2007 to 2019 with the reliability of each event listed in descending order.

Reigning Four-Year-Old Emerald fancy Copy That with trainer Ray Green at Cambridge last Saturday.1. Four-Year-Old Emerald

1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 1/2. 4/3. 1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 1/2. 1/1. 1/1.

The 4yo boys’ race has proven easily the most reliable with 12 of the 13 runnings won by the favourite. Only Franco Emirate (4/3) broke the mould in 2011 with the failure of the hotpot Pure Power.

Favourite this year: Copy That ($3.20).

2. Four-Year-Old Diamond

11/11. 1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 7/7. 1/2. 1/1. 1/1. 2/2. 1/1. 1/2. 1/1.

The 4yo mares’ event is the next best section for the favourites. The win favourite has won 10 times and the second favourite once. The two big upsetters were GTH Aveross (11/11) who paid $81.70 in the inaugural race in 2007 at Ashburton and Pembrook’s Delight (7/7) who paid $35.40 at Cambridge in 2012, photo-finishing the favourite Bettor Cover Lover.

Favourites this year: Amazing Dream ($1.85), Need You Now ($2.30).

3. Two-Year-Old Diamond

3/1. 2/3. 1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 1/2. 1/1. 2/2. 1/1. 2/2. 2/3. 1/1. 1/1.

There has never been an upset in the two-year-old fillies’ race with eight favourites, four second favourites and a third win favourite (who was place favourite) Lizzie Maguire (3/1) taking the honours in 2007.

Favourite this year: True Fantasy ($1.30).

4. Three-Year-Old Emerald

1/1. 1/1. 2/1. 4/3. 1/1. 2/2. 1/2. 3/3. 1/1. 1/1. 8/9. 2/1. 1/1.

Punters can also bet the favourites confidently in the three-year-old colts’ and geldings’ race, with seven top fancies and three second favourites winning, two of which were place favourites. The only upset came in 2017 when the hotpot Ultimate Machete was narrowly beaten (half a neck) by Jack’s Legend (8/9) who paid $46.50.

Favourites this year: Krug ($1.80), B D Joe ($4.50).

5. Three-Year-Old Diamond

3/3. 5/4. 4/4. 1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 1/1. 2/2. 1/1. 3/2. 1/1. 1/1. 2/2.

Bettor Twist is a $1.55 favourite after her last start win in the New Zealand Oaks.The top favourites didn’t feature in the first three runnings of the three-year-old fillies’ race with Running On Faith, Safin and Joyfuljoy scoring. But it’s been pretty much to the favourites’ playbook since with seven win favourites and two second favourites getting home.

Favourites this year: Bettor Twist ($1.55), La Rosa ($3.40).

6. Two-Year-Old Emerald

1/1. 3/3. 2/2. 1/1. 1/2. 1/1. 5/5. 7/7. 1/2. 1/1. 7/4. 2/2. 1/1.

There have been only three rough years for backers of the favourites in the two-year-old colts and geldings’ event. Sky Major (5/5) paid $10.30 in 2013 when he photo-finished Maxim and Aussie hotpot Allblack Stride, Lincoln Farms’ Beaudiene Boaz (7/7) paid $38.90 the following year when Follow The Stars let favourite punters down and Ashley Locaz (7/4) came from barrier 10 in 2017 to win, with favourite Spankem only third. Seven favourites have won.

Favourites this year: Akuta ($1.25), Cosmic Major ($5.50).

7. Four-Year-Old Ruby

4/4. 1/1. 2/1. 1/1. 1/1. 12/12. 5/5. 1/2. 1/1. 1/1. 3/2. 2/1. 1/1.

The late Colin Butler sprung the Jewels’ biggest upset at Cambridge in 2012 when Charlemagne (12/12) trotted from eight on the gate to win paying $90.70 in a blanket finish with Springbank Sam and Phil’s Gift, with the hotpot Irish Whisper last. The following year at Ashburton Cyclone U Bolt (5/5) hurt punters when he downed favourite Escapee. There have still been seven win favourites strike and two second favourites.

Favourites this year: Muscle Mountain ($1.60), Bolt For Brilliance ($3.40).

8. Three-Year-Old Ruby

2/1. 1/1. 1/1. 5/5. 1/1. 5/5. 4/4. 1/1. 4/4. 3/3. 1/1. 1/1. 2/2.

Five Wise Men after his impressive workout win at Cambridge last Saturday. He is unbeaten in his last seven starts.The three-year-old trotters have not been quite so reliable with only six of the 13 favourites winning. But there have been no complete blow-outs with the roughest winners Vulcan (2010) and Cyclone U Bolt (2012) 5/5 in the betting.

Favourites this year: Five Wise Men ($1.75), Outamyway ($6.50), Regal Attire ($7), Leaf Stride ($8), Time Up The Hill ($9).

9. Two-Year-Old Ruby

1/1. 8/8*. 7/7. 1/1. 1/1. 2/2. 2/3. 2/2. 3/3. 2/2. 6/6. 1/1. 7/7.

Not surprisingly fewer favourites win the baby trotters’ event with only five* win fancies and four second fancies prevailing in 13 years. Upsets have included Jinja Gal (7/7), Paramount King (6/6) and Bolt For Brilliance (7/7).

* 2008 winner Muscle and Power was the favourite but he was later disqualified after testing positive for DMSO and runner-up Merckx (8/8) promoted.

Favourites this year: Highgrove ($2.40), Mystic Max ($2.60), Double Delight ($6).