Favourite draw gives Tommy Lincoln great winning chance at Albion Park on Saturday
By Barry Lichter • 7 October 2021
Tommy Lincoln, with his best draw for a couple of months, has a great chance to return to the winner’s circle at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Tommy Lincoln has drawn two in the tight class pace, the fourth on the card, a post from where he has won three of his five races at Albion Park.
And trainer Mark Dux, who takes the reins, sees Tommy as the leader, with none of the few Brisbane pacers capable of outspeeding him at the start, like Turn It Up, in the race.
“I’m not 100% sure what the one (Replaced Eye) can do but his Sydney form suggests he’ll be happy to take a trail.
“And I don’t think the others could cross me,” says Dux with main rivals Make Mine Memphis in six and Jeradas Delight in seven.
“He should be the leader and while he might have to run time - they could pressure us at some stage - he’s racing really well.
“His run for third last week was great. He did all the work, (outside the leader) ran fast fractionals, and stuck to his task.”
With Turn It Up turning up the tempo over the last 800 metres in 54.7, Tommy Lincoln had to dig deep in the run home but never flinched, finishing only 6.7 metres from the winner on a mile rate of 1:53.8.
“Not many horses can sit parked in good company and still box on when they start to run those fractionals - he’s no slowcoach.
“This is his best winning chance for some time. The draw gives him every hope whereas before we had to have this or that happen.”
Nemo chasing hat-trick on Friday
Trainer Mark Dux gets Captain Nemo home for back-to-back wins at Albion Park last week. PHOTO: Dan Costello.Captain Nemo, who races in the opener at the Creek on Friday night, is also well in his rating 63 to 71 race as the highest rated in the field.
And, while drawn two on the second line, it’s the same starting position he mastered so well last week when winning his second race on end after getting a three wide drag into the race.
“They’ll probably use Harps a bit early so we should get a good run through and 2138 metres is probably a better distance for him than the mile last week.
“Even if he’s only midfield in the early running I can pop out if they back off.
“That’s the good part about him, you don’t have to sit and wait, you can be off and around them.
“Some horses have to sit but he can make his own luck and take bad luck out of the equation.
“A couple in the race go all right but the way he’s going he’ll be right in the thick of it.”
Captain Nemo races at 8.40pm NZ time at Albion Park on Friday night.
Tommy Lincoln races at 10.12pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
