Favourite draw gives Tommy Lincoln great winning chance at Albion Park on Saturday
By Barry Lichter • 7 October 2021
Tommy Lincoln, with his best draw for a couple of months, has a great chance to return to the winner’s circle at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Tommy Lincoln has drawn two in the tight class pace, the fourth on the card, a post from where he has won three of his five races at Albion Park.
And trainer Mark Dux, who takes the reins, sees Tommy as the leader, with none of the few Brisbane pacers capable of outspeeding him at the start, like Turn It Up, in the race.
“I’m not 100% sure what the one (Replaced Eye) can do but his Sydney form suggests he’ll be happy to take a trail.
“And I don’t think the others could cross me,” says Dux with main rivals Make Mine Memphis in six and Jeradas Delight in seven.
“He should be the leader and while he might have to run time - they could pressure us at some stage - he’s racing really well.
“His run for third last week was great. He did all the work, (outside the leader) ran fast fractionals, and stuck to his task.”
With Turn It Up turning up the tempo over the last 800 metres in 54.7, Tommy Lincoln had to dig deep in the run home but never flinched, finishing only 6.7 metres from the winner on a mile rate of 1:53.8.
“Not many horses can sit parked in good company and still box on when they start to run those fractionals - he’s no slowcoach.
“This is his best winning chance for some time. The draw gives him every hope whereas before we had to have this or that happen.”
Nemo chasing hat-trick on Friday
Trainer Mark Dux gets Captain Nemo home for back-to-back wins at Albion Park last week. PHOTO: Dan Costello.Captain Nemo, who races in the opener at the Creek on Friday night, is also well in his rating 63 to 71 race as the highest rated in the field.
And, while drawn two on the second line, it’s the same starting position he mastered so well last week when winning his second race on end after getting a three wide drag into the race.
“They’ll probably use Harps a bit early so we should get a good run through and 2138 metres is probably a better distance for him than the mile last week.
“Even if he’s only midfield in the early running I can pop out if they back off.
“That’s the good part about him, you don’t have to sit and wait, you can be off and around them.
“Some horses have to sit but he can make his own luck and take bad luck out of the equation.
“A couple in the race go all right but the way he’s going he’ll be right in the thick of it.”
Captain Nemo races at 8.40pm NZ time at Albion Park on Friday night.
Tommy Lincoln races at 10.12pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
More news in Harness
Brace for Ray and Lincoln Farms at Cambridge but Colonel’s placing just as thrilling
Ray: Preferential draw for top fillies makes it tough for everyone else in Golden Gait series
Patient owners hoping high-priced Colonel can salute at Cambridge on Thursday night
Friday’s Lincoln Farms Franklin Cup all about the standing start manners of Aussie raider
Our runners this week
Tuesday at Cambridge
Colonel Lincoln, Onyx Shard, Commander Lincoln, Debbie Lincoln, Kevin Kline, Lincoln La Moose, The Big Lebowski.
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 2: Commander Lincoln
5.51pm
“Back to Cambridge and the easier amateur ranks he can get some of it. He’s an honest little horse who pays his way.”
Race 4: Onyx Shard
6.49pm
“She’s a nice filly who is training really well and it wouldn’t surprise me to see her in the money in spite of the outside draw. She’d be one of the best in that field and is definitely an each-way chance.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.39pm
“He hasn’t raced for nearly 21 months but his training has been good and he should go well first-up. He’s a beautiful, big horse who probably lacks a yard of speed to be a real super horse but he’s got everything else. I expect him to go well against this lot.”
Race 7: Lincoln La Moose
8.04pm
“He’s training well and has surprised us before, like when he won his first start at Cambridge like a monster after breaking on the first turn. It’s always the way when they win their first start - it makes things hard for them after that - but he’s travelling well now and is capable of being in it.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 4: Lincoln Lou
7.09pm
“He’ll be relying on a heap of good luck from the second row. His last run was a non-event. The poor little bugger couldn’t have done a better job of finding trouble. He’s trained on all right.”
Race 4: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.09pm
“He’s training really well and he showed last time what a big motor he had, losing all that ground early and still getting up to win. He’s not famous for his gate speed but as long as he gets away safely then Maurice can put him in the race at the right time. There are a lot of horses in there that aren’t that safe who could stand on their ear. Navigating through them is always a worry. He’ll need some luck but he could give them a fright.”
Race 6: Frisco Bay
8.05pm
“He obviously can’t beat Duchess Megxit or Jeremiah but if he gets a good trip he’s a chance of getting some money. Things didn’t suit him last time - being out three wide then going to the front. He’s so hot, he over-races. He goes best if he’s allowed to slop out and find the back of something, when he generally relaxes. Even if he got back a bit, that would be all right, so long as he gets sucked along.”
