Early fireworks will decide Tommy’s fate - if he crosses to the pegs he can run a place
By Barry Lichter • 29 November 2023
The first few hundred metres will determine if Tommy Lincoln can earn some money in Friday night’s first heat of the Interdominion championship at Albion Park in Brisbane.
Trainer Mark Dux believes Lincoln Farms’ five-year-old, who is one of the outsiders for the series, can run a place if he can cross the pole runner inside him without spending too much petrol.
“I think we’re three-quarters of a length quicker than Targaryen, so we’ve got to have a go, but I wouldn’t like to see him spend everything off the gate and have nothing left.”
Driver Mathew Neilson will have to tread a fine line between having a serious crack at finding the markers but not burning so hard that the horse gets tired late.
“I’m not 100% certain he can cross but it’s a big advantage being on the markers at Albion Park so we’ll have a crack.”
Dux says sometimes it’s more important to know the form of the drivers as the horses and a notable declaration today for Targaryen was top reinsman Luke McCarthy, replacing regular pilot Chloe Butler who is under suspension.
But it’s the driver of the in-form Future Assured, Trent Dawson, who gives Dux plenty of hope that it won’t be the end of the world if Tommy doesn’t cross and has to sit in the running line.
“Future Assured will go forward and they always drive Uptown Beach girl tough too so Tommy should get cover.
“If we got the lead I’d be happy if we could lob straight onto the back of Future Assured as he won’t hand - he’d park Rock N Roll Doo - and he will run, he’s a decent horse.”
Race rival former Kiwi Spirit Of St Louis is a dual Miracle Mile placegetter. PHOTO: Stuart McCormick.Fast milers
Dux believes Tommy will have to lift his game a notch to match the three favourites who all have faster winning times over 1660 metres or a mile.
In his recent winning streak, Future Assured clocked winning mile rates of 1:50.9, 1:51.6 and 1:51.8. Rock N Roll Doo ran 1:50.1 in winning the Len Smith Mile at Menangle in September. And 28-race winner Spirit Of St Louis, a dual Miracle Mile placegetter, clocked 1:51.5 in winning the Golden Mile and pushed South Coast Arden to half a head in June’s J D Watts Memorial, run in 1:49.1.
Of the others, the unknown quantity is I Cast No Shadow who a year ago won the Len Smith Mile at Menangle in 1:48.8. But he hasn’t won a race since last year’s Interdominion and, no longer with Jason Grimson, he has shown nothing in Queensland yet for Darrel Graham.
“Unless they try and nurse their horses because there are three heats, they’ll run about 1:51 and Tommy will have to step up a little.”
The horse’s best winning mile rates in Brisbane have been 1:52.7 and 1:52.8 but he was only 11 metres behind Blacksadance when he ran his then record 1:50.
Dux is confident, however, that he has the horse in prime condition to run a big 1660 fresh-up for seven months.
“Both of his trials have been good. And last Friday he led and really hit the line well. Mathew didn’t take the whip out with him or pull the plugs, the horse did it on his own and ran a nice half of 54.5.”
In scoring by 13 metres over former Kiwi Rough And Ready, Tommy Lincoln clocked a mile rate of 1:53.7 for the 1660 metres, home in 26.9.
But Dux knows Tommy’s taking on topline horses who are capable of running fast sectionals like that.
“These horses can all run a good half and you’d think they’d go hard - unless we get rain and they’re predicting we might.”
* Nine horses start in each of the four pacing heats on Friday night, seven across the front row.
Tommy Lincoln races at 9.51pm NZ time at Albion Park on Friday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
