Captain Nemo strikes an easier field at Albion Park on Saturday night. PHOTO: Dan Costello.
Draws make it tough for Brisbane trio but Nemo’s back to the right grade this time
By Barry Lichter • 7 April 2023
Lincoln Farms’ trio of Captain Nemo, Argyle and Tommy Lincoln look set to struggle from bad barrier draws at Albion Park on Saturday night.
But trainer Mark Dux warns that all three horses are racing better than their form line suggests and they need only luck to be in the fight.
First cab off the rank in the fourth race is Captain Nemo who beat only one home last week but could be the best chance to get some money this week.
Racing against far better performed rivals from a bad alley last week, Captain Nemo was never able to get into the race.
“The leader ran home in 55, and what chance have you got of making any ground when you’re back in the field? It’s near impossible.”
Captain Nemo was officially clocked over his last 800 metres in 55.66, which was only half a second slower than the winner L L Cool J (55.18).
“But he’s back to more his own grade this time and, in an even field, he should get a good trip through behind the favourite.”
The Shane Graham-trained and driven Scarlet Babe ran a good third last start and, even though the mare has not won a race since December, 2021, she is still the one to beat, he says.
Even if Scarlet Babe doesn’t manage to cross the pole runner Misdemeanor, which has gate speed and likes to lead, Dux believes Nemo should still end up no worse than one-out two-back.
Impossible to predict
Just where Argyle lands from three the second row in the sixth race is impossible to predict but one thing Dux does know is that the field he faces is very strong.
“This is a really tough race - there aren’t many there that are no-hopers. They’re all reasonable chances.
“Argyle will still race all right - he’ll probably drop straight behind the nine horse (Hezashadowplaya) and drive for luck.”
Dux rated Argyle’s effort for third in a heat of last week’s female drivers’ championship as “honest.”
After enjoying a sweet one-one trail, Narissa McMullen told Dux she thought he was going to win when she pulled out.
“But he dashed quickly only for 100 metres then levelled out.”
Argyle finished four metres behind the winner, who clocked a 1:54.1 mile rate, leaving Dux “happy enough” with the effort.
“He didn’t have the gate speed I hoped he might but maybe he’s a stronger horse more than one with high speed. He might be able to do work so we’ll test him at some stage.”
Wide draw death knell
Dux already knows not to ask Tommy Lincoln to do too much work early in his races so drawing five of six in the last race is a death knell.
“We have to drive Tommy sensibly, if we go out stupidly he’ll drop out. We’ve got to hope Deus Ex charges off the gate but it’s his first run back so they’ll probably drive him quietly.”
That, says Dux, will almost certainly see pole runner Mach Da Vinci gifted an easy lead and win.
“Everything else will go straight to the fence - the two (Governor Jujon) will duck behind it and (Northview) Hustler won’t come out.”
Shane Graham would then be happy to go steady on Mach Da Vinci and blast home in sectionals that won’t allow anything to catch him.
Dux says it’s a shame because Tommy is “flying” at the moment.
“His run last week was really good even though he was only sixth. Mathew (Neilson) said he felt terrific and really wanted to hit the line.
“He made ground on the outside ones and was beaten only 12 metres which is not bad considering how far back he was at the quarter and they ran home in 25.7.”
Captain Nemo races at 9.11pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Argyle races at 10.09pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Tommy Lincoln races at 12.05am NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
