Tommy Lincoln whips former NZ Cup winner Cruz Bromac in his trial 10 days ago.
Draw sucks but Tommy only has to run top five on Saturday to get a pass mark from the boss
By Barry Lichter • 26 August 2022
From an awkward barrier draw, Tommy Lincoln only has to run in the top five to get a pass mark from trainer Mark Dux at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Tommy Lincoln lines up for his first race in eight weeks in the opener, not ideally suited by the 2138 metres and at a distinct disadvantage from the inside of the second row.
But despite all that, and the fact he meets some talented rivals, Dux is expecting a good effort from the horse.
“The way he trialled, I’m sure he’ll race well,” said Dux pointing to the horse’s excellent 1:52.1 mile rate clocking over Cruz Bromac 10 days ago.
“I’m really happy with him - he’s done well since the trial - the only worry is he could end up four back.”
Dux can see pole runner Sam Is Perfection being crossed early by former Kiwi Star Galleria, immediately putting Tommy three deep.
And if Star Galleria then hands to either of the two favourites, Mach Da Vinci or Will The Wizard, it will see Tommy buried four back with little or no chance of getting into the action.
“Three back would be great but four back would make it a lot harder. Still, I’m happy enough with the draw as he doesn’t need a gut buster first-up.
“If he’d drawn in midfield you’d have had to go forward or drag him back, which is not easy to do with him.
“It’s not the end of the world. There are a couple of mile races coming up in the next two weeks and he’ll be fitter for them.”
Dux, however, hasn’t totally written off Tommy’s chances on Saturday night.
“It will all come down to where we land, three or four back. If Mach da Vinci led, and went hard down the back, the field might open up, then who knows what might happen?”
Dux says while there are five genuine open company horses in the field, Tommy isn’t out of place.
“There’s nothing he hasn’t raced before and he’s been more than competitive. He’s run the times and finished second to Will The Wizard before.”
Tommy Lincoln races at 7.39pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
