Tommy Lincoln will need luck from the inside of the second row. PHOTO: Race Images.
Don’t get choked up about Tommy, he’s going as fast as ever and just needs some luck
By Barry Lichter • 16 February 2023
Most of the time when your horse runs his last mile of a 2138 metre race in 1:52.6 you’d be celebrating a win or at least a placing.
So where do you think Tommy Lincoln ran at Albion Park last week, clocking that sectional along with an equally sizzling closing half of 53.5?
How about last!
The importance of field position in Queensland, and split second decisions by drivers, was illustrated perfectly when Tommy, impressive winner of his previous two starts, trailed home Blacksadance and four others last Saturday night.
Blacksadance went no better than Tommy over his last mile, recording 1:52.35 and covering 10 metres less, but because he was on the front end, he won the race.
Trainer Mark Dux says Tommy’s race went bad as soon as driver Mathew Neilson tried to restrain him off the arm.
Virtually crawling off the gate, Blacksadance clocked only 14.18 seconds for his first 200 metres, a full second slower than Yep Got Chooks registered over 2138 metres in a much lower grade earlier in the night.
Tommy ran just 15.22 as Neilson wrestled with Nemo, who ran wide on the first turn.
The blue shaded areas show that while Tommy Lincoln ran last of six last week he was the fastest in four stages of the race - first half, middle half, first quarter of the last mile and second quarter.
“Tommy’s been going forward in his last few starts and he got a bit keen,” Dux said. “Mathew half choked him pulling him back and said the horse was gasping for air on pulling up because he’d been fighting him so hard.
“In hindsight, maybe he should have let him roll when they came out.”
That option is not one Neilson will have on Saturday night with Tommy drawn the inside of the second row, from where Dux says he’ll need plenty of luck.
Tommy follows out Warfare who looks certain to hand up and put him three deep, not the horse’s favoured position in running.
“We just have to hope he gets some luck. It will be a bit difficult for him but I wouldn’t write him off. He’s going well enough to get some of it if things do go his way.
“The back ones are the ones to beat - Mach Da Vinci and Manila Playboy - it will just come down, as always, to the trips they get.”
Angus Garrard is back on Captain Nemo on Saturday night and knows him well. PHOTO: Dan Costello.Captain Nemo, who lines up in the opening race, had no chance the way he was driven last week, said Dux.
Taken back to last, then asked to go three wide and pace a 26.32 third quarter, Nemo understandably weakened and beat only one home.
To his credit, Dux said claiming driver Luke Whittaker put his hand up and admitted he drove the horse badly.
“His first mistake was going back off the gate. He should have popped round outside the leader then he’d have been there when they sprinted.
“His second mistake was not taking off before the favourite Surf Ace then he’d have been on the speed instead of getting stuck three wide.”
Nemo faces a stronger field this week but Dux can see him getting a good run through from two on the second row.
“Angus (Garrard) is back on too and that will help as he knows the horse well.
“I can’t see why he won’t race all right but, like Tommy, he’ll be relying on luck from the alley.”
Captain Nemo races at 8.16pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Tommy Lincoln races at 9.42pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
