Mark Purdon has trained six of the last seven New Zealand Cup winners.
Betting on the Cup starts to warm up with Self Assured closing in on $2 and Copy That solid
By Barry Lichter • 9 November 2021
After a sluggish start to betting on today’s IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup, the money is finally starting to come for Self Assured.
Since bookies posted $2.70 for the cup favourite earlier in the week when he drew the second row, the money has been only trickling in, the latest bets $900 at $2.40, $800 at $2.40 and last night the biggest of $2500 at $2.30.
But TAB Risk Analyst Matthew Peden expects Self Assured to start closer to $2 than $2.50 once the big players warm up later in the day.
“Betting has been sluggish, punters aren’t stepping in to the favourites so much because they’re short, but it’s picking up now.
“And once the Aussie money starts to come for Mark and Natalie, I’m sure Self Assured will get shorter. But I’m not sure the market will react so much to South Coast Arden.”
South Coast Arden had drifted this morning to $4.80.
Mark Purdon will be out to extend an unprecedented winning run in the cup, having taken the last five cups on end and six of the last seven, with Adore Me (2014), Lazarus (2016 and 2017), Thefixer (2018), Cruz Bromac (2019) and Self Assured (2020).
Best punted on the card
One horse in the famous blue with silver stars livery that has been heavily punted is American Pride who goes round in the opening trot for Purdon.
A succession of bets has seen his price cut from $3.30, the latest this morning $1000 at $2.30, making him the best backed horse on the entire card.
Support for Copy That in the cup has been steady, with bets of $800 at $4.50, two $500 bets at $4.50 and $1000 at $3.80.
In the futures market, Copy That took $500 at $6.50 and two bets of $200 at $6.
Outside of the top four favourites, Bad To the Bone is the best backed but Peden reports plenty of $200 and $300 bets on Classie Brigade to run top 3.
Laver and Vintage Cheddar account for 90% of the top 4 hold but with 73% of the field at $41 and longer, he says total betting has been somewhat stifled.
A special punters’ club set up by the Addington club had reached $75,000 by 9.30am this morning with expectations it will top $100,000 when the pool closes at 1pm.
More news in Harness
No Jumals to beat this time at the Park so Ray’s looking for Lincoln Wave to roll in
Lincoln Linda best of the night at Cambridge - she has the engine to cross Soul Artist
Cheapie Johnny Lincoln a “proper” racehorse who can foot it with the Million bluebloods
Bang! Lincoln Wave’s tyre blows out, startling rival drivers but Alabar win would shock more
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 1: Rivergirl Bella
5.44pm
“She did well here last time as she had to do a bit to get to the lead and she dug in and fought on. She’s certainly a chance if she repeats that effort.”
Race 4: Lincoln Linda
7.09pm
“I thought she went super last time after doing a lot of work. She can do that because she has an engine and is tough. She’s a bit one-dimensional - you have to turn her loose early - but from the two draw she should be able to lead and that’s where she does her best work.”
Race 5: Sugar Ray Lincoln
7.34pm
“I think he’s a bit stronger after his spell. It’s not a great field - most will die on that mark - and I don’t see a problem with the standing start as he’s nicely gaited. He could be marginally unfit after three months out but he’s done quite a bit of work and I can see him going a half-decent race.”
Race 6: Lincoln Maree
7.59pm
“She had every chance last time but I can’t see why she won’t go well again. She’s as honest as they come and tries like hell.”
Race 7: The Night Fox
8.29pm
“You’d think he’d lead easily from the inside. He’s had bad draws and still got the money, so I’m sure he’ll go another good race. I’m surprised they sold him so cheaply. He’s better than people think.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Lincoln Wave
5.09pm
“With the trip he got in the Harness Million I thought he’d have run on a lot better. But he was still a bit short on fitness and sometimes we can expect too much of these horses, he was racing the best, after all. It’s a big drop in grade here and he’s a pretty fair horse.”
Race 1: Leo Lincoln
5.09pm
“He’s an honest sort who’s in a good space but he won’t get a wonderful trip from the outside of the gate this time so I’m not holding my breath.”
Race 3: Sammy Lincoln
6.04pm
“He’s training down well but you never know what he’s going to do. You think you’ve got him sorted and he does something silly. But we know if the real Sammy turned up, he’d be very hard to beat as he’s got a lot of speed.”
Race 5: Prince Lincoln
7.05pm
“He’s another where you don’t know which one will turn up but we’ve gelded him since his last run, so we’ll see if that helps. He trained well the other day.”
