Mark Purdon has trained six of the last seven New Zealand Cup winners.
Betting on the Cup starts to warm up with Self Assured closing in on $2 and Copy That solid
By Barry Lichter • 9 November 2021
After a sluggish start to betting on today’s IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup, the money is finally starting to come for Self Assured.
Since bookies posted $2.70 for the cup favourite earlier in the week when he drew the second row, the money has been only trickling in, the latest bets $900 at $2.40, $800 at $2.40 and last night the biggest of $2500 at $2.30.
But TAB Risk Analyst Matthew Peden expects Self Assured to start closer to $2 than $2.50 once the big players warm up later in the day.
“Betting has been sluggish, punters aren’t stepping in to the favourites so much because they’re short, but it’s picking up now.
“And once the Aussie money starts to come for Mark and Natalie, I’m sure Self Assured will get shorter. But I’m not sure the market will react so much to South Coast Arden.”
South Coast Arden had drifted this morning to $4.80.
Mark Purdon will be out to extend an unprecedented winning run in the cup, having taken the last five cups on end and six of the last seven, with Adore Me (2014), Lazarus (2016 and 2017), Thefixer (2018), Cruz Bromac (2019) and Self Assured (2020).
Best punted on the card
One horse in the famous blue with silver stars livery that has been heavily punted is American Pride who goes round in the opening trot for Purdon.
A succession of bets has seen his price cut from $3.30, the latest this morning $1000 at $2.30, making him the best backed horse on the entire card.
Support for Copy That in the cup has been steady, with bets of $800 at $4.50, two $500 bets at $4.50 and $1000 at $3.80.
In the futures market, Copy That took $500 at $6.50 and two bets of $200 at $6.
Outside of the top four favourites, Bad To the Bone is the best backed but Peden reports plenty of $200 and $300 bets on Classie Brigade to run top 3.
Laver and Vintage Cheddar account for 90% of the top 4 hold but with 73% of the field at $41 and longer, he says total betting has been somewhat stifled.
A special punters’ club set up by the Addington club had reached $75,000 by 9.30am this morning with expectations it will top $100,000 when the pool closes at 1pm.
More news in Harness
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Cheapies The Night Fox and Lincoln Maree keep the tally ticking over at Cambridge
Little Missy Lincoln can stand up for herself in Young Guns fillies’ heat on Friday night
Leo poised to roar again - he looks a ratings special at Cambridge on Thursday night
Our runners this week
Friday night at Auckland
Leo Lincoln, Spiritual Bliss, Missy Lincoln, Lincoln Wave, Johnny Lincoln.
Our runners this week: How our trainer rates them
Nathan’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 1: The Night Fox
5.44pm
“From a good front line draw Harry can run off the gate and find the front. He’s shown he’s got the speed to get there. And if he can go 2:42 again, or quicker, I thought he’d be a very good winning chance. It’s an easier field than the one he beat last time. He’s trained well this week.”
Race 2: Rivergirl Bella
6.09pm
“She goes down to Cambridge for the first time so it’s a big drop in class. She also goes a lot better left-handed so I thought from the good draw she could run top three.”
Race 3: Lincoln Maree
6.34pm
“She paced a 1:56.7 mile in beating the amateurs last start but it looks like she’ll need a bit of luck from the draw this time. The two inside her like to lead so she could end up three fence or outside them. I’ll leave it up to Harry to get the right trip.”
Race 3: Lincoln Lover
6.34pm
“He’s a place chance. He likes bowling along but from five it’s hard to say where he’ll end up. He’s very consistent and he paced 2:42.3 last time so I can absolutely see him in the money.”
Race 6: Lincoln Linda
8.04pm
“She was in a very strong R40 to R48 race last time at Auckland against horses like Alecto, All Of Me and Cyclone Rebel, and she clocked 2:41.1, so back to Cambridge where she won her first race, and a much easier R38 to R40 field, she’s got to be a good winning chance. She’s best in front if Fergie can get there.”
