Mark Purdon has trained six of the last seven New Zealand Cup winners.
Betting on the Cup starts to warm up with Self Assured closing in on $2 and Copy That solid
By Barry Lichter • 9 November 2021
After a sluggish start to betting on today’s IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup, the money is finally starting to come for Self Assured.
Since bookies posted $2.70 for the cup favourite earlier in the week when he drew the second row, the money has been only trickling in, the latest bets $900 at $2.40, $800 at $2.40 and last night the biggest of $2500 at $2.30.
But TAB Risk Analyst Matthew Peden expects Self Assured to start closer to $2 than $2.50 once the big players warm up later in the day.
“Betting has been sluggish, punters aren’t stepping in to the favourites so much because they’re short, but it’s picking up now.
“And once the Aussie money starts to come for Mark and Natalie, I’m sure Self Assured will get shorter. But I’m not sure the market will react so much to South Coast Arden.”
South Coast Arden had drifted this morning to $4.80.
Mark Purdon will be out to extend an unprecedented winning run in the cup, having taken the last five cups on end and six of the last seven, with Adore Me (2014), Lazarus (2016 and 2017), Thefixer (2018), Cruz Bromac (2019) and Self Assured (2020).
Best punted on the card
One horse in the famous blue with silver stars livery that has been heavily punted is American Pride who goes round in the opening trot for Purdon.
A succession of bets has seen his price cut from $3.30, the latest this morning $1000 at $2.30, making him the best backed horse on the entire card.
Support for Copy That in the cup has been steady, with bets of $800 at $4.50, two $500 bets at $4.50 and $1000 at $3.80.
In the futures market, Copy That took $500 at $6.50 and two bets of $200 at $6.
Outside of the top four favourites, Bad To the Bone is the best backed but Peden reports plenty of $200 and $300 bets on Classie Brigade to run top 3.
Laver and Vintage Cheddar account for 90% of the top 4 hold but with 73% of the field at $41 and longer, he says total betting has been somewhat stifled.
A special punters’ club set up by the Addington club had reached $75,000 by 9.30am this morning with expectations it will top $100,000 when the pool closes at 1pm.
More news in Harness
Ray reveals his theory on why rank outsider Sammy Lincoln can play a hand in the derby
$101 winner Lincoln Wave has improved and is worth following in Friday’s derby lead-up
OK Sammy, lightning bolts aside, Ray’s relying on you to do things right this time
Lincoln Dealer has the genes but not the barrier draw for Cambridge debut
Our runners this week: How our trainer rates them
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 2: Colonel Lincoln
5.23pm
“He’s come through his two runs well and we can be bolder with him from a front row draw.”
Race 2: Sugar Ray Lincoln
5.23pm
“He’s in good shape and you can’t fault what he’s doing. I don’t think the (seven) draw should make a lot of difference - he’s been parked in his last two and still got money. You wouldn’t take a trifecta without putting him in.”
Race 2: Leo Lincoln
5.23pm
“He’s racing really well and just needs a bit of luck from the second row. He’s trained on well and should go well again. ”
Race 4: Rivergirl Bella
6.27pm
“She only has a little sprint but, if she doesn’t have to do too much, she can get home well.”
Race 4: Jessie Lincoln
6.27pm
“She’ll win a race or two, and will get one soon as she’s honest, but she’s still very green. And to be fair to her, she hasn’t had a decent enough run where you can really judge her yet.”
Race 8: Lincoln Wave
8.38pm
“Based on the draws, Sammy looks a better chance than Lincoln Wave. Not many win from out there, especially in a Group I race. But I suppose he had a similar draw at Cambridge (six) and got lucky (squeezing into the trail when Nymbal broke) so you never know what can happen. It won’t be easy for him but it would be nice to see him get a good trip as I think he’ll handle the 2700 metres as well as the others.”
Race 8: Sammy Lincoln
8.38pm
“If he can hold up, that would be marvellous as if anything can give Jumal a fright, it’s him. I know he’s still a maiden but he’s better than most of them ability-wise. He’s a classy big bugger who is very fast and if he ends up on Jumal’s back he’d be dangerous. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the fray as he has such a lot of ability.”
Rac e 10: Prince Lincoln
9.37pm
“If the real Prince Lincoln turned up he’d be in the money, but you never know with him.”
