Mark Purdon has trained six of the last seven New Zealand Cup winners.
Betting on the Cup starts to warm up with Self Assured closing in on $2 and Copy That solid
By Barry Lichter • 9 November 2021
After a sluggish start to betting on today’s IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup, the money is finally starting to come for Self Assured.
Since bookies posted $2.70 for the cup favourite earlier in the week when he drew the second row, the money has been only trickling in, the latest bets $900 at $2.40, $800 at $2.40 and last night the biggest of $2500 at $2.30.
But TAB Risk Analyst Matthew Peden expects Self Assured to start closer to $2 than $2.50 once the big players warm up later in the day.
“Betting has been sluggish, punters aren’t stepping in to the favourites so much because they’re short, but it’s picking up now.
“And once the Aussie money starts to come for Mark and Natalie, I’m sure Self Assured will get shorter. But I’m not sure the market will react so much to South Coast Arden.”
South Coast Arden had drifted this morning to $4.80.
Mark Purdon will be out to extend an unprecedented winning run in the cup, having taken the last five cups on end and six of the last seven, with Adore Me (2014), Lazarus (2016 and 2017), Thefixer (2018), Cruz Bromac (2019) and Self Assured (2020).
Best punted on the card
One horse in the famous blue with silver stars livery that has been heavily punted is American Pride who goes round in the opening trot for Purdon.
A succession of bets has seen his price cut from $3.30, the latest this morning $1000 at $2.30, making him the best backed horse on the entire card.
Support for Copy That in the cup has been steady, with bets of $800 at $4.50, two $500 bets at $4.50 and $1000 at $3.80.
In the futures market, Copy That took $500 at $6.50 and two bets of $200 at $6.
Outside of the top four favourites, Bad To the Bone is the best backed but Peden reports plenty of $200 and $300 bets on Classie Brigade to run top 3.
Laver and Vintage Cheddar account for 90% of the top 4 hold but with 73% of the field at $41 and longer, he says total betting has been somewhat stifled.
A special punters’ club set up by the Addington club had reached $75,000 by 9.30am this morning with expectations it will top $100,000 when the pool closes at 1pm.
More news in Harness
Hey Wendy and Amy, go easy of Fergs as he’s doing a sterling job taming Lincoln Linda
Third time lucky for Wave’s little bro Omaha Lincoln who finally debuts at Auckland
Copy N Paste a ‘tradesman’ but look for bold debut run at Cambridge on Thursday night
Ray reveals his theory on why rank outsider Sammy Lincoln can play a hand in the derby
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Ray’s comments
Thursday night at Cambridge
Race 4: Lincoln Linda
6.38pm
“I’m not sure where she’s at. It’s a big drop in class - there’s not much in there - but I don’t think she’ll morph into a star. She was hitting the sulky wheels last time and over-racing but that won’t happen again.”
Race 6: Lincoln Maree
7.36pm
“She paced roughly last time but we’ve done a bit of work on her since so she should be happier this time. It depends on the trip she gets (from four) but she’ll go an honest race. She’s no superstar, but she doesn’t miss many cheques.”
Race 8: Copy N Paste
8.45pm
“He’s dour and tradesman-like but he’s getting there. It’s his first time off the place, and the trip will improve him, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him competitive in what is a very weak field. Sometimes you don’t know what the Bettors Delights have got until they front up at the races but he trialled well and beat a couple who are against him here.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Prince Lincoln
4.53pm
“He actually tried last time. He’s a nice horse but can change his mind quickly. Full blinds woke him up last time so we’ll see if he responds to them again this time.”
Race 3: Omaha Lincoln
5.46pm
“I think he’ll go a good race but it’s his first time at Alexandra Park so I don’t want to talk him up too much. He’s got enough ability to win a race like this, whether he’s ready to do it, we’ll find out. He can get a bit keen at times but I think he’s a chance if he does everything right.”
Race 5: Spiritual Bliss
6.54pm
“It was another great run last time after leading and she’s a good, tough mare who will go another good race. What trip she gets will determine where she finishes. From five, I’m picking she might go back this time but I’ll leave that up to the driver (Harrison Orange).”
Race 6: Sharpe Stride
7.24pm
“He’s a nice trotter, a big strong colt. He can get a bit hot but there’s nothing wrong with how he goes. He’s certainly not good enough to deal with these but he’s there for a run around.”
Race 9: Leo Lincoln
8.57pm
“He’s racing in career-best form and they were struggling for runners so I put him in. He gets a starting fee of $1750 so we won’t go home empty-handed. I’m really happy with him, he’s handling right-handed racing better these days. But he’s racing the bear cats so I’m not suggesting for a second he’ll give them a fright.”
Race 10: Colonel Lincoln
9.25pm
“I thought he went super last time. It was a vast improvement on the previous two starts and you’ve got to remember he was out for a long time. He’s coming to it now and improving all the time. I couldn’t label him but I’d be surprised if he’s not in the first three or four. He’s trained on well and gets a front row draw.”
Race 10: Sugar Ray Lincoln
9.25pm
“He was given too much to do last time - up to park at the bell - and you can’t drive the ears off them every time. With a more conservative trip he’d be right in it.”
