Mark Purdon has trained six of the last seven New Zealand Cup winners.
Betting on the Cup starts to warm up with Self Assured closing in on $2 and Copy That solid
By Barry Lichter • 9 November 2021
After a sluggish start to betting on today’s IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup, the money is finally starting to come for Self Assured.
Since bookies posted $2.70 for the cup favourite earlier in the week when he drew the second row, the money has been only trickling in, the latest bets $900 at $2.40, $800 at $2.40 and last night the biggest of $2500 at $2.30.
But TAB Risk Analyst Matthew Peden expects Self Assured to start closer to $2 than $2.50 once the big players warm up later in the day.
“Betting has been sluggish, punters aren’t stepping in to the favourites so much because they’re short, but it’s picking up now.
“And once the Aussie money starts to come for Mark and Natalie, I’m sure Self Assured will get shorter. But I’m not sure the market will react so much to South Coast Arden.”
South Coast Arden had drifted this morning to $4.80.
Mark Purdon will be out to extend an unprecedented winning run in the cup, having taken the last five cups on end and six of the last seven, with Adore Me (2014), Lazarus (2016 and 2017), Thefixer (2018), Cruz Bromac (2019) and Self Assured (2020).
Best punted on the card
One horse in the famous blue with silver stars livery that has been heavily punted is American Pride who goes round in the opening trot for Purdon.
A succession of bets has seen his price cut from $3.30, the latest this morning $1000 at $2.30, making him the best backed horse on the entire card.
Support for Copy That in the cup has been steady, with bets of $800 at $4.50, two $500 bets at $4.50 and $1000 at $3.80.
In the futures market, Copy That took $500 at $6.50 and two bets of $200 at $6.
Outside of the top four favourites, Bad To the Bone is the best backed but Peden reports plenty of $200 and $300 bets on Classie Brigade to run top 3.
Laver and Vintage Cheddar account for 90% of the top 4 hold but with 73% of the field at $41 and longer, he says total betting has been somewhat stifled.
A special punters’ club set up by the Addington club had reached $75,000 by 9.30am this morning with expectations it will top $100,000 when the pool closes at 1pm.
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Ray’s comments
Wednesday at Cambridge
Race 3: Spiritual Bliss
1.10pm
“You can’t fault what she’s done up here and she’s trained on really well since Manawatu. She seems to have a good motor and can carry her speed a long way. It’s a bit of a step-up on Wednesday, and she’s drawn out a bit, but she should be right in the fray.”
Race 4: Lincoln Lover
1.45pm
“It’s a huge drop in class for him on what he’s been racing. The Purdon horse Crippa Max looks the one to beat on his trial but I’m picking we’ll finish in the first three at worst. He’s very honest and does nothing wrong.”
Race 6: Lincoln Downs
2.55pm
“She got skittled early last time when one galloped in front of her, and that didn’t help. It would be nice to see her get a good trip, with no incidents, and see what she can do. She’s no superstar but she tries hard.”
Race 9: Leo Lincoln
4.31pm
“It’s his first race for more than four months and I’m picking he’ll need the run. It was a toss-up whether we went to the trials, but he’d probably have had no opposition, so it made sense to drop him in here. He’s training well and seems in good shape but whatever he does, he’ll improve on.”
