Mark Purdon has trained six of the last seven New Zealand Cup winners.
Betting on the Cup starts to warm up with Self Assured closing in on $2 and Copy That solid
By Barry Lichter • 9 November 2021
After a sluggish start to betting on today’s IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup, the money is finally starting to come for Self Assured.
Since bookies posted $2.70 for the cup favourite earlier in the week when he drew the second row, the money has been only trickling in, the latest bets $900 at $2.40, $800 at $2.40 and last night the biggest of $2500 at $2.30.
But TAB Risk Analyst Matthew Peden expects Self Assured to start closer to $2 than $2.50 once the big players warm up later in the day.
“Betting has been sluggish, punters aren’t stepping in to the favourites so much because they’re short, but it’s picking up now.
“And once the Aussie money starts to come for Mark and Natalie, I’m sure Self Assured will get shorter. But I’m not sure the market will react so much to South Coast Arden.”
South Coast Arden had drifted this morning to $4.80.
Mark Purdon will be out to extend an unprecedented winning run in the cup, having taken the last five cups on end and six of the last seven, with Adore Me (2014), Lazarus (2016 and 2017), Thefixer (2018), Cruz Bromac (2019) and Self Assured (2020).
Best punted on the card
One horse in the famous blue with silver stars livery that has been heavily punted is American Pride who goes round in the opening trot for Purdon.
A succession of bets has seen his price cut from $3.30, the latest this morning $1000 at $2.30, making him the best backed horse on the entire card.
Support for Copy That in the cup has been steady, with bets of $800 at $4.50, two $500 bets at $4.50 and $1000 at $3.80.
In the futures market, Copy That took $500 at $6.50 and two bets of $200 at $6.
Outside of the top four favourites, Bad To the Bone is the best backed but Peden reports plenty of $200 and $300 bets on Classie Brigade to run top 3.
Laver and Vintage Cheddar account for 90% of the top 4 hold but with 73% of the field at $41 and longer, he says total betting has been somewhat stifled.
A special punters’ club set up by the Addington club had reached $75,000 by 9.30am this morning with expectations it will top $100,000 when the pool closes at 1pm.
More news in Harness
Video clue on why Lincoln Lover is tipped to go boldly fresh-up at Auckland on Friday night
A picture of Bliss but poor Harry’s arms were nearly pulled out of their sockets
Ultra-consistent Kevin Kline sold to the United States: Why Ray’s sorry to lose him
Nate having a last spin round on his wee mate Eric - and he’s in with a very good chance
Our runners this week: How our trainers rate them
Nathan’s comments
Thursday night at Manawatu
Race 4: Spiritual Bliss
6.25pm
“She won well on the first day but pulled very hard - Harry said his arms were that tired afterwards he couldn’t have lifted a 1kg dumb bell. She’s meeting a few nice ones here, up in grade, but she’s drawn better so you can’t count her out. She tries hard and really digs in.”
Race 7: Lincoln Downs
7.50pm
“She did everything right on Tuesday but she blew heavily afterwards and I think the heat got to her. She’s a place chance if she recovers OK.”
Race 8: Lincoln Maree
8.22pm
“She was jumping shadows on Tuesday and moves to the last race this time but she’s not the most genuine so I’m not holding my breath.”
Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 3: Lincoln Lover
6.28pm
“He hasn’t raced for three months but trialled really well. I pick he’s going to win one pretty quickly and, given he’s been running against the best two-year-olds in his previous preps, it should really be on Friday night. This lot of maidens aren’t in the same class and he’s as honest as they come, a tough little trier.”
Race 6: Debbie Lincoln
8.09pm
“She’s really up against it from the outside of the second line, with all the favourites drawn well. She has to be the unluckest animal on the planet. With her, what can go wrong will. Even at the best of times you need a reasonable draw to figure but drawn in the bondocks here she’ll need incredible luck.”
Race 8: Sugar Ray Lincoln
9.09pm
“He had a short break while some vet work was done but is in good trim. Yes, there are a few in here that are vastly higher rated but his formline says it all - it’s not often he doesn’t get a cheque.”
Race 8: Tyson
9.09pm
“He was a bit unlucky last week that he didn’t get to them a bit sooner otherwise I think he would have won. Maurice said he thought they’d come back to him more, going 2:39 speed, but his closing sectionals were easily the best in the race.”
Race 10: Prince Lincoln
10.09pm
“He’s grown into a beautiful horse, a quality looking colt, and who knows what he could be. He’ll obviously improve with the run but I still expect him to run well from his good draw. He trialled very well behind a good one.”
Race 10: Johnny Lincoln
10.09pm
“He’s drawn a bit awkwardly in seven, which gives Prince Lincoln the edge, but he too was making good ground in the workout.”
