Mark Purdon has trained six of the last seven New Zealand Cup winners.
Betting on the Cup starts to warm up with Self Assured closing in on $2 and Copy That solid
By Barry Lichter • 9 November 2021
After a sluggish start to betting on today’s IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup, the money is finally starting to come for Self Assured.
Since bookies posted $2.70 for the cup favourite earlier in the week when he drew the second row, the money has been only trickling in, the latest bets $900 at $2.40, $800 at $2.40 and last night the biggest of $2500 at $2.30.
But TAB Risk Analyst Matthew Peden expects Self Assured to start closer to $2 than $2.50 once the big players warm up later in the day.
“Betting has been sluggish, punters aren’t stepping in to the favourites so much because they’re short, but it’s picking up now.
“And once the Aussie money starts to come for Mark and Natalie, I’m sure Self Assured will get shorter. But I’m not sure the market will react so much to South Coast Arden.”
South Coast Arden had drifted this morning to $4.80.
Mark Purdon will be out to extend an unprecedented winning run in the cup, having taken the last five cups on end and six of the last seven, with Adore Me (2014), Lazarus (2016 and 2017), Thefixer (2018), Cruz Bromac (2019) and Self Assured (2020).
Best punted on the card
One horse in the famous blue with silver stars livery that has been heavily punted is American Pride who goes round in the opening trot for Purdon.
A succession of bets has seen his price cut from $3.30, the latest this morning $1000 at $2.30, making him the best backed horse on the entire card.
Support for Copy That in the cup has been steady, with bets of $800 at $4.50, two $500 bets at $4.50 and $1000 at $3.80.
In the futures market, Copy That took $500 at $6.50 and two bets of $200 at $6.
Outside of the top four favourites, Bad To the Bone is the best backed but Peden reports plenty of $200 and $300 bets on Classie Brigade to run top 3.
Laver and Vintage Cheddar account for 90% of the top 4 hold but with 73% of the field at $41 and longer, he says total betting has been somewhat stifled.
A special punters’ club set up by the Addington club had reached $75,000 by 9.30am this morning with expectations it will top $100,000 when the pool closes at 1pm.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Cambridge
Race 1: Rivergirl Bella
4.52pm
“She did a good job last week at Auckland. Throwing her in the deep end seems to have toughened her up a bit. She’s getting stronger all the time. This is a big drop in class and she’s a chance from a better gate (three).”
Race 2: Prince Lincoln
5.20pm
“If the real Prince turned up he’d absolutely be hard to beat. If he leads, as he should do from two, he’s a different horse.”
Race 3: Major Copy
5.54pm
“Maurice just nursed him around on debut. He was stepping over tyre marks on the track so he didn’t want to launch him into the open too soon. We’ll put a shadow roll on him this time to stop that and I can see him going a lot better from the inside draw.”
Race 3: Jessie Lincoln
5.54pm
“I’m not saying she can’t win but it will be hard for Fergie to find a good trip from the draw. She’ll need a lot of luck but she can be right in it if things go her way as she’s training well.”
Race 5: Lincoln Dealer
6.49pm
“He’s been a slow developing horse and you can’t drive him pretty, he won’t let you, as he’s a bit of a hot head. Maurice will launch him and see where he ends up.”
Race 5: Spirit Of God
6.49pm
“She got tired late last time and started hanging a bit (hitting a marker) but I thought she went OK. She did a bit early (from a wide draw) and was still there at the finish so she’s going to win a race. You never know with second line draws but it’s usually a decent impairment.”
Race 7: Lincoln Maree
7.40pm
“She never runs a bad race. She has a big motor for a little filly and should be right in the fray.”
Race 7: Angelic Copy
7.40pm
“Maurice said she foundered a bit when they took off, and got three or four lengths behind, but she didn’t lose any more ground after that and held her place. So the run wasn’t as bad as it looked and she’ll be improved.”
Race 8: Lincoln Wave
8.14pm
“It was a non-event last time (from a stand) and he’s a good horse who will be vying for the lead from five and deserves to be favourite.”
Race 8: Sugar Ray Lincoln
8.14pm
“Peter (Ferguson) said he didn’t feel as sharp last week as in the past so I’ve given him a little freshen-up with a light week and he should go better.”
