Mark Purdon has trained six of the last seven New Zealand Cup winners.
Betting on the Cup starts to warm up with Self Assured closing in on $2 and Copy That solid
By Barry Lichter • 9 November 2021
After a sluggish start to betting on today’s IRT New Zealand Trotting Cup, the money is finally starting to come for Self Assured.
Since bookies posted $2.70 for the cup favourite earlier in the week when he drew the second row, the money has been only trickling in, the latest bets $900 at $2.40, $800 at $2.40 and last night the biggest of $2500 at $2.30.
But TAB Risk Analyst Matthew Peden expects Self Assured to start closer to $2 than $2.50 once the big players warm up later in the day.
“Betting has been sluggish, punters aren’t stepping in to the favourites so much because they’re short, but it’s picking up now.
“And once the Aussie money starts to come for Mark and Natalie, I’m sure Self Assured will get shorter. But I’m not sure the market will react so much to South Coast Arden.”
South Coast Arden had drifted this morning to $4.80.
Mark Purdon will be out to extend an unprecedented winning run in the cup, having taken the last five cups on end and six of the last seven, with Adore Me (2014), Lazarus (2016 and 2017), Thefixer (2018), Cruz Bromac (2019) and Self Assured (2020).
Best punted on the card
One horse in the famous blue with silver stars livery that has been heavily punted is American Pride who goes round in the opening trot for Purdon.
A succession of bets has seen his price cut from $3.30, the latest this morning $1000 at $2.30, making him the best backed horse on the entire card.
Support for Copy That in the cup has been steady, with bets of $800 at $4.50, two $500 bets at $4.50 and $1000 at $3.80.
In the futures market, Copy That took $500 at $6.50 and two bets of $200 at $6.
Outside of the top four favourites, Bad To the Bone is the best backed but Peden reports plenty of $200 and $300 bets on Classie Brigade to run top 3.
Laver and Vintage Cheddar account for 90% of the top 4 hold but with 73% of the field at $41 and longer, he says total betting has been somewhat stifled.
A special punters’ club set up by the Addington club had reached $75,000 by 9.30am this morning with expectations it will top $100,000 when the pool closes at 1pm.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Cambridge
Race 2: Johnny Lincoln
5.39pm
“He didn’t do anything at Auckland last start but seems to go better left-handed and placed at Cambridge in his only start there.”
Race 2: Lincoln Maree
5.39pm
“Her driver (Harrison Orange) said she would have won last start had that horse (Mr Miki) not stopped in her face. The winner was gone by the time she saw daylight. She will just need some luck from the second row draw.”
Race 2: Prince Lincoln
5.39pm
“He should have won last start at Auckland but we’ve taken the blinds off on Friday night and, in a weaker line-up, going left-handed, we’ll see how he goes.”
Race 4: Spiritual Bliss
6.37pm
“I think the race will be won or lost soon after the start. It’s out of our control, we just have to hope she gets a run through and then I’m sure she’ll be hard to beat.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.40pm
“She’s got a little bit of lick but only has a short sprint, so timing is everything.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.40pm
“Being put in the race from the start last time obviously took a bit of the sting out of him. But at least there’s no chance that will happen this time from the second row. In his previous races he’d ducked for cover and got sucked along but he needs a decent tempo, he’s no sit-sprinter.”
