Auckland Cup shapes up as a Copy That v Self Assured showdown - we see how they compare

The stats slightly favour Copy That but not even Lincoln Farms’ trainer Ray Green is game to say his charge will get the better of Self Assured in Friday’s $180,000 Auckland Cup.

And not withstanding the element of a surprise newcomer in The Big Lebowski and the talent of Akuta, the more you analyse the feature race the more it all points to a Copy That v Self Assured showdown.

“They’re clearly better than anything else racing at the moment,”says Green. “And I think they’re on a par in most departments - I couldn’t separate them on speed or stamina.

Ray Green … Hard to separate Copy That and Self Assured on ability.“They’re two outstanding horses. You don’t win $2 million and be lucky.”

Self Assured claims the most prizemoney, his bankroll $2,125,769 compared wth Copy That’s $2,004,476. But Copy That has won the most races, 33 to Self Assured’s 29, albeit he’s raced nine more times.

This year in New Zealand their records are like mirror images - Copy That boasting two wins, two seconds, a third and a fourth while Self Assure has two wins, two seconds, a third and a sixth.

But when you compare their head-to-head performances Copy That starts to edge ahead.

He has won six of their 10 clashes and at the crucial extreme distance of 3200 metres he holds a two to one edge. The sole time Self Assured got the better of him was in the infamous 2020 New Zealand Cup when the start was such a shemozzle, favouring the outside runners, that the starter got his marching orders.

Copy That has won his last two starts over 3200 metres, blitzing the New Zealand Cup field in 2021 and 2022, Self Assured runner-up in 2021 and only fifth last year.

Self Assured has won only one of his last four attempts at 3200 metres, his latest defeat a second when giving Krug a 10 metre head start in the Invercargill Cup last December.

Self Assured takes the honours in the Auckland Cup, winning the 2019 edition in a sedate 3:59.4 and the 2022 race in 3:58.9.

The only time Copy That contested the Auckland Cup, in 2020, he ran a courageous neck and half length third to Amazing Dream and Spankem after sitting parked for the last two laps, when they ran a hot 3:56.5.

For Green, the times matter little.

“I don’t take any notice of overall times. They just depict how the race was run.

“Always at this level it comes down to the trip. You won’t beat them sitting parked the whole way.”

But that doesn’t mean Green is worried about Self Assured drawing one and Copy That seven.

“It’s a very small field, not like the usual cups with full fields, so over two miles it doesn’t really matter so much. You won’t be far off no matter where you are in the running.

“Copy That always steps pretty well and, if he leads, not too many would press him.”

The inside draw isn’t necessarily paved with gold for Self Assured anyway.

“Drawing one can be an inconvenience if you’re crossed early,” says Green. “Self Assured wasn’t so good early on from a stand but he seems to be handling himself better now.”

One reservation

If Green has one reservation about Copy That on Friday night it’s that he won’t have raced or trialled for four weeks.

“I’m not entirely confident we’ve got it right this time but I’m hopeful. I think he’s in good shape but I would have liked to have had a decent trial or race after the Messenger. That might cost him close to home.”

Copy That and Self Assured will clash for the 11th time on Friday night.Green is critical of how HRNZ programmed so many races in a row last month and then gave trainers only one chance, the Roy Purdon Memorial last week, to fit their horses for the cup.

“He had five tough races in five weeks - couldn’t they have spead them out more?”

Copy That ended up having to sit out the Purdon Memorial and a subsequent trial when his routine joint maintenance threatened to breach a new, un-notified with-holding time.

“We’ll have to wait and see if it’s cost him but he looks good and he feels good when he goes onto the track, he’s bouncing around.

“And he’s always hungry, nothing worries him.”

Green says champions like Copy That always seem to find a way to do something special when things don’t go their way.

“Self Assured is the same, they seldom run bad races.”

Green has seen a lot of Self Assured recently with the Mark and Nathan Purdon stars boarding at Lincoln Farms.

“And to think I could have had them both. I was underbidder on Self Assured at the yearling sales.”