Leading junior Angus Garrard drives Argyle, above, and Captain Nemo on Saturday night. PHOTO: Dan Costello.
Argyle outstanding chance from rare good alley, so too unlucky Nemo for 2023 farewell
By Barry Lichter • 29 December 2023
Trainer Mark Dux is confident of closing out 2023 on a good note for Lincoln Farms with Argyle and Captain Nemo both looking strong chances at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Dux believes Argyle needs only average luck to win the third race, where he is clearly the highest rated runner and has his best draw for several months.
And he fancies Captain Nemo’s top three chances in the opener as well, the tough pacer drawn the pole and sure to get a sweet trip for top junior Angus Garrard.
Argyle will be having his first start since December 9, missing a subsequent start with a minor foot issue but, while Dux is not convinced he is totally over it, his work this week has been excellent.
“He trained really well on Thursday morning and it might be nothing but I just felt he was a fraction off after he came back in.”
Dux said to look at Argyle you’d never suspect a problem but he was all too aware that when horses have to stand around in wet conditions after persistent rain - it’s been another wet week - moisture can creep into little cracks in their feet and cause infections.
“But he seems good today and this race looks to be our best chance of winning for some time.
“We’ve finally got a draw (two) and I’m not too worried about the others.
“We’ll be aggressive at the start and, with average luck, he looks the winner. If nothing goes against him, he’s in the race up to his ears.
“He’s racing terrific, he’s getting better out of the gate all the time, and he’ll get a nice run.”
Argyle continued his hot run of form last start when, despite having to sit parked throughout, he still went close, beaten just five metres and a neck by the in-form Aardie’s Flash, who enjoyed a perfect trail.
It continued a nine-race, three month streak where he has racked up seven top three finishes, despite six poor draws.
Captain Nemo credited Angus Garrard with his 500th winner last December. He now sits on 679.Captain Nemo’s run of bad draws extends even further - in his last 18 starts, dating back to March, he has been served up seven second row draws, six times he has been on the outside of the front line, and twice started from six. Only three times has he drawn inside six.
Imagine, then, Dux’s surprise when the random barrier draw gave Nemo the pole, the first time in the two and a half years he has been in Queensland that he has been favoured with the Albion Park path to gold.
“It’s a good field for a band 5 race but in our favour is we’re going to get a nice trip. Bonnie Prince Louis looks the leader and we should be on his back so we’re a top three chance for sure.”
Dux says you can forget Nemo went round at his last start when nothing went right for claiming junior Layne Dwyer from gate six.
“Hindsight is a great thing but we pulled the wrong rein going forward the other day.
“He was caught four wide in a 26.9 first quarter then had to get going early when he was run up the track by a rival.”
Three wide to the death, with his first half of the 1660 metres in 56.24, Nemo was out of torpedoes before the home turn and finished 20 metres from the winner, after covering an extra 26 metres.
Leading junior Angus Garrard, with 679 career wins, is in the bike on Saturday night.
Captain Nemo races at 9.07pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
Argyle races at 10.12pm NZ time at Albion Park on Saturday night.
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Ray’s comments
Friday night at Auckland
Race 1: Debbie Lincoln
5.26pm
“She had to sit parked most of the way last time but still went well, and that’s what she does. She’s proven to be a very promising filly and, while it’s hard these days to win without a good trip, it’s an even field and she’s a good chance again.”
Race 2: Lincoln Lou
5.55pm
“He probably cost himself a win last week by going roughly, but he can do that. If he’d got Frisco Bay’s trip he would have won with his closing quarters of 56 and 27 the fastest in the race. He’s just got to do things right to be the one to beat, even from the bad draw, as it’s an easier field.”
Race 5: Frisco Bay
7.30pm
“He’s up in grade a bit but I don’t think there’s anything between them. He’s just got to get the right run and, with his speed, he’ll be right in it.”
Race 6: Kevin Kline
7.59pm
“He’s no superstar but he’s very honest and he’s always a place chance as he’s a tough bugger, he sat parked last week.”
Race 6: Colonel Lincoln
7.59pm
“With a similar run to last week, he’d be right in it. He clocked 55.8 and 27.7, doing his best work at the finish. He hasn’t gone a bad race since he’s come back.”
Race 8: Prince Lincoln
8.59pm
“I wasn’t expecting him to do anything on debut as he’s a green, young horse. But he went very well so he’s obviously lifted his game for the occasion. And he’s trained on even better so the experience has enhanced him. From the inside he has to be a good chance.”
Race 8: Rivergirl Bella
8.59pm
“She’s definitely a better animal left-handed but she was passable right-handed and should go better this time. She’s got some speed.”
Race 8: Lincoln Downs
8.59pm
“She’s a nice filly but is behind the others. I don’t expect her to beat anything but she needs the experience.”
Race 8: Lincoln Linda
8.59pm
“There won’t be any shadows for her to jump this time so she has to be a serious chance. She’d been dominant at the workouts and trials before her debut but didn’t get the chance to show her true worth.”
Race 8: Lincoln Lover
8.59pm
“Fergie was quite impressed with him on debut and requested the drive again. He finished on strongly up the lane and should go well again. He just needs some luck from the outside of the gate.”
Mark Dux’s comments
Saturday night at Albion Park
Race 3: Argyle
9.04pm NZ time
“I thought his last two starts have been terrific. There’s no doubt this race is tougher, and he has trickier draw, but I was talking to Angus last night and he was quite upbeat about his chances. He said the horse gave him a good feel when he sat parked two starts back and he picked him too (in the draft). But it won’t be easy. There could be a bit of pressure early. I think he’ll come out and see what unfolds and, if there is too much pressure, he’ll drive him quietly.”
Ray’s comments
Sunday at Manawatu
Race 1: Onyx Shard
5.29pm
“You can put a line through her last run at Cambridge when she pulled up showing signs of a respiratory infection. She had a couple of weeks off after that and, while she hasn’t trialled since, she’s been training down nicely. She’s a nice filly and from the good draw should really win.”
Race 3: Lincoln La Moose
6.19pm
“He wasn’t far away in the amateur race at Auckland last time despite jumping a shadow early and galloping. This is a decent drop in class for him and he should be very competitive.
